502
FXUS61 KBUF 100931
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
531 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
2) DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEKEND WILL TREND MUCH
WARMER WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER IMPACTING OUR AREA FROM LATE THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TODAY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BRIEFLY
RETREAT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AS A BAROCLINIC WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS OVER LAKE
ONTARIO POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY.
THE FRONTAL WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ENE ALONG THE BOUNDARY, WITH THE
FRONT THEN SAGGING BACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH DPVA AND HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT TO BRING A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS CROSSING THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH
THE FINGER LAKES TO CENTRAL NY. THE QUICK PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL
KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS MODEST, IN THE 0.25" TO 0.50" RANGE IN MOST
AREAS.
RAIN WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE FRONT AND
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXIT THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEKEND WILL
TREND MUCH WARMER WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER IMPACTING OUR AREA FROM
LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND COOL START TO THE WEEKEND, WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY,
BEFORE A STRONG PUSH OF WAA ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A STOUT LLJ
BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION. A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN LINGER OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF DRY
TIME ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN EACH SUCCESSIVE BOUT OF SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WILL THEN SEE A DAY-TO-DAY WARMING TREND,
SOARING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TEMPORARILY LIFT BACK NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND RUNS ALONG THE FRONT. A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AND VFR WILL PREVAIL.
THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BRINGING WITH IT A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. MODERATE SHOWERS WILL BRING SOME VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES. CIGS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO WIDESPREAD
IFR ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT,
AND CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THE LOWER ELEVATION LAKE PLAINS BY
LATE TONIGHT, WITH MVFR/IFR LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN POST-
FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... VFR/MVFR WITH A FEW SHOWERS LIKELY AT
TIMES. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY, THEN
MOVE SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, THEN BECOME NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY CONDITIONS AT TIMES, BUT WINDS AND WAVES
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES WILL
NOT COME UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK/JM
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page