943
FXUS61 KBUF 101813
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
213 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COOLER WEATHER SATURDAY.
2) UNSETTLED BUT WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN AND IMPACT THE REGION
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND, THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COOLER WEATHER SATURDAY.
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES ROUGHLY FROM
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY...WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO AUGMENTING
THE COOLER AIR ON ITS NORTH SIDE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.
AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AN
ELONGATED SURFACE WAVE IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF RIDING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. IN ITS WAKE...THE BOUNDARY WILL DROP FURTHER
SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THIS
OCCURS...A ROUND OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS (ASSOCIATED WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG/TRAILING THE FRONT AND
DCVA/HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT) WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SHOWERS...SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR A COUPLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES TO ABOUT OSWEGO COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE
FRONT WILL BE LIGHT TO MODEST...AND ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES.
AS WE GET INTO THIS EVENING...THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL
QUICKLY END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE
FRONT AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE...THOUGH LINGERING UPSLOPING WILL
LIKELY ALLOW AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THIS ESPECIALLY THE CASE EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SHOULD LARGELY END BY THE START OF SATURDAY...
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS
SUPPORTING A DRY DAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSETTLED BUT WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN AND IMPACT
THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND, THROUGH THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRANSVERSING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE ONTARIO PROVINCE OF CANADA WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A STOUT LOW LEVEL JET AND
SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND BECOME STALLED
AS A WAVY BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH THE
BOUNDARY OVERHEAD, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, SHOULD NOTE THAT A THERE WILL BE BRIEF
PERIODS OF DRY TIME BETWEEN EACH ROUND OF SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH A DAY-TO-DAY
WARMING TREND.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD
AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH A ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
(WITH THE LATTER POTENTIAL CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN TIER/FINGER
LAKES AND POSSIBLY OSWEGO COUNTY). THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...WHILE CEILINGS DETERIORATE TO MVFR
AND THEN IFR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE LOWER LEVELS
SATURATE.
AS WE PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT...THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...THOUGH UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY ALLOW AT LEAST A FEW
LINGERING ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THIS ESPECIALLY THE CASE
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS/DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT...WHILE MORE SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WILL THEN BRING A RETURN TO AREAWIDE VFR BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A FEW SHOWERS LIKELY AT
TIMES, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
A GENERAL MODEST NORTHERLY FLOW ON LAKE ONTARIO AND WESTERLY FLOW ON
LAKE ERIE WILL RE-ORIENT TO NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT. WINDS ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO AND LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING DURING THE REST OF SATURDAY. THE LATTER WILL GENERATE
SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO...THOUGH WINDS AND WAVES WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES LOOKS TO COME
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHEN A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
BY WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EAJ/JJR
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
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