418
FXUS61 KBUF 110621
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
221 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRYING OUT, BUT CHILLY TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
2) MUCH WARMER BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRYING OUT, BUT CHILLY TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
A COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY KEEP A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO GOING
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS THE TUG HILL THROUGH MID
MORNING. OTHERWISE, A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY. THIS WILL HELP TO ERODE MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, WITH MOST AREAS SEEING PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER HIGHS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MUCH WARMER BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
SUNDAY WILL START DRY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING WITH IT A
FEW SHOWERS. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE
FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.
ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST US THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A SERIES OF
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE REGION. AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL
ZONE WILL LAY OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, AND PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
NEXT WEEK WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT, BUT EACH OF THE FAST MOVING WEAK
FEATURES WILL BRING AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY, SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
BEYOND MONDAY, THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES AND PERIODS OF
GREATER RAIN COVERAGE BECOMES MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING MONDAY, WITH
WARMTH THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL
LIKELY REACH THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS INLAND FROM LAKE
ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO EACH DAY. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY MAKE A RUN AT 80
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IF SHOWER AND DENSE CLOUD COVERAGE REMAINS
LOW ENOUGH.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A COOL MOIST NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT, KEEPING SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS GOING SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. DESPITE THIS, PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST IS ALREADY
HELPING TO IMPROVE VSBY AND LIFT CIGS ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN
AREAS, WITH A MIX OF MAINLY MVFR AND LOW VFR CIGS (ISOLATED IFR
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO). UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS WILL KEEP LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER IMPROVEMENT TOWARD MVFR IS
EXPECTED AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK.
MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN
AFTER DAYBREAK, WITH ANY LINGERING MVFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN
TIER EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY AROUND MID MORNING, ALTHOUGH MVFR MAY
HANG ON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH WIDESPREAD VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHEAD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A FEW SHOWERS LIKELY AT
TIMES, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS THAT WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON LAKE
ONTARIO TODAY, WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING,
SHIFTING TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, A FRESHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK/JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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