416
FXUS61 KBUF 111730
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
130 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRYING OUT, BUT CHILLY TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
2) MUCH WARMER BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MUCH WARMER BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST, ALLOWING FOR A WARM FRONT TO SLIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE
ENTRANCE OF THE WARM FRONT, A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIE ON THE
NORTHERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA, ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION, DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT.
ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST US THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A SERIES OF
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE REGION. AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL
ZONE WILL LAY OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, AND PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
NEXT WEEK WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT, BUT EACH OF THE FAST MOVING WEAK
FEATURES WILL BRING AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY, SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
BEYOND MONDAY, THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES AND PERIODS OF
GREATER RAIN COVERAGE BECOMES MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING MONDAY, WITH
WARMTH THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL
LIKELY REACH THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS INLAND FROM LAKE
ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO EACH DAY. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY MAKE A RUN AT 80
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IF SHOWER AND DENSE CLOUD COVERAGE REMAINS
LOW ENOUGH.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF SUNDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING EAST, CLOUD COVER IS
GRADUALLY BEING STRIPPED AWAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS SEEN ON CURRENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE. THIS BEING SAID EVEN WITH THE DISSIPATING CLOUD
COVER, FLIGHT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVE TO WIDESPREAD VFR.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE EVENING, TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHEAD.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SHOWERS, CEILINGS WILL BE ON THE LOW END OF
VFR, WITH A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A FEW SHOWERS LIKELY AT
TIMES, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES, WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES OVERHEAD, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN TO BELOW 10 KNOTS.
A FRESHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EAJ/JJR
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ
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