867
FXUS61 KBUF 011830
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
230 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FROST ADVISORY ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. FREEZE
WARNING ALSO ISSUED FOR CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
2) CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF FROST/FREEZE
TONIGHT.
3) POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA,
SUPPORTING A GENERAL TROUGHING PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. WITH THE TROUGHING PATTERN OVERHEAD, A FEW
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL RIPPLE THROUGH, MAINTAINING NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION.
A POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT, COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
THIS AFTERNOON AS A DECAYING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. COLDER
AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, MAY SUPPORT
GRAUPEL/SNOW TO MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF
FROST/FREEZE TONIGHT.
A GENERAL TROUGHING PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT,
WILL SUPPORT COLD AIR TO ADVECT INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WILL TUMBLE TO
AROUND -4C TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT, COMBINED
WITH WEAKENING SURFACE WINDS WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE 30S, AND THEREFORE SUPPORT FROST DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS,
ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM THE LAKESHORES. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WILL SEE LOWS BELOW FREEZING. A FROST ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND INTO THE FINGER LAKES, AND A
FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY, WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON BEGAN TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES
SATURDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PARKED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA, WILL SUPPORT A
GENERAL TROUGHING PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WITHIN THE TROUGHING PATTERN, SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL RIPPLE
THROUGH, SUPPORTING COLDER AIR TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION WITH
EACH PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WILL TUMBLE TO -5C BY SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THIS BEING SAID, LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL WELL INTO THE
30S AND EVEN INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND INTO THE FINGER LAKES SINCE THE GROWING
SEASON STARTED ON MAY 1ST.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON FROM A
PASSING WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THESE SHOWERS,
THERE IS AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER THAT HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH MAINLY LOW END VFR TO HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS, HOWEVER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THERE ARE IFR CEILINGS (CURRENTLY IMPACTING
KJHW). MEANWHILE, WELL DISPLACED FORM THE SURFACE LOW, KART REMAINS
WITH SOME MID-LEVEL VFR SCATTERED CLOUDS.
AS THE LOW PASSES EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT, ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS COVER WILL FOLLOW. AS SUCH, THERE WILL START TO
BE SOME CLEARING IN THE WEST SUPPORTING THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST OF
KROC TO IMPROVE TO VFR AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO IMPROVE TO
VFR/MVFR. THE LIGHT SHOWERS MAY EXTEND NORTH INTO KART THIS EVENING,
SUPPORTING THE MVFR CEILINGS TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AT
TIMES. SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EARLY SATURDAY.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF MVFR BECOMING
MORE LIKELY...WITH A COUPLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
GENERALLY QUIET WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LAKES
THIS WEEKEND, WITH WINDSPEEDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, SUPPORTING WINDS TO TURN TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND FRESHEN TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH WINDS ON MONDAY NIGHT PEAKING UP TOWARDS 25 KNOTS. AS
A RESULT, CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE
NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES POSSIBLE.
CLIMATE
OUR VERY WET SPRING CONTINUED THROUGH THE MONTH OF APRIL...WITH BOTH
BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN POSTING APRILS THAT WERE AMONG THE TOP 10
WETTEST ON RECORD. THE MONTHLY PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR OUR THREE
CLIMATE SITES WERE AS FOLLOWS:
BUFFALO - 5.58" (6TH WETTEST ON RECORD)
ROCHESTER - 4.08" (TIED FOR 14TH WETTEST ON RECORD)
WATERTOWN - 5.16" (5TH WETTEST ON RECORD)
COUPLED WITH THE EXTREMELY WET MARCH...THE ABOVE RESULTED IN
COMBINED MARCH-APRIL PRECIPITATION TOTALS THAT WERE EITHER THE
WETTEST OR 2ND WETTEST ON RECORD. FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES, THESE
WERE AS FOLLOWS:
BUFFALO - 11.91" (WETTEST ON RECORD - PREVIOUS WETTEST 11.80"/1991)
ROCHESTER - 9.97" (2ND WETTEST ON RECORD, BEHIND ONLY 11.73"/1873)
WATERTOWN - 9.79" (WETTEST ON RECORD - PREVIOUS WETTEST 8.43"/2011)
NOTE THAT PERIODS OF RECORD GO BACK TO JANUARY 1871 FOR BUFFALO AND
ROCHESTER, AND MAY 1949 FOR WATERTOWN.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NYZ001>006-010>014-085.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NYZ019.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EAJ
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ
CLIMATE...JJR
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