035
FXUS61 KBUF 021757
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
157 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FROST ADVISORY ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. FREEZE
WARNINGS ALSO ISSUED FOR CHAUTAUQUA, SOUTHERN ERIE, WYOMING AND
GENESEE COUNTIES TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CHILLY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST
ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS.
2) WARMER BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
3) ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS STARTING MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...CHILLY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS.
AFTER SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA IN WHAT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS COLD SNAP. COMBINED WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRIER SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. SOME AREAS
MAY HAVE LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY ALONG WITH SOME WINDS THAT ARE JUST
STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP PREVENT FROST FROM FORMING, BUT OVERALL
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK OR COLDER. FREEZE
WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES CAN BE FOUND BELOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WARMER BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS A SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THIS WILL OCCUR AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS AND A
NORTHERN STREAM LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE REGION. A WEAK PASSING WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, FURTHER INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL WARM TO THE LOW
TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH SOME MID 40S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE
DAY ON MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PASSING WARM FRONT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
AND AS A PAIR OF SFC LOWS, FIRST ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND,
THEN THE OTHER TRACKING SOUTH OF JAMES BAY INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER.
THE LLJ THAT ESTABLISHES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE STRONGER ON
SUNDAY, BUT A BIT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING,
PREVENTING SOME BETTER MIXING TO THE SURFACE. MONDAYS LLJ WILL BE
WEAKER, BUT BETTER TIMING WITH THE MIXING OF THE AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS. MONDAYS LLJ WILL THEN INCREASE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA, BUT MIXING WILL DECREASE BY THAT POINT.
WIND GUSTS FOR SUNDAY TO THE 30-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF
LAKE ERIE AND TO 20 TO 25 MPH FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. ON MONDAY,
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE, WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE ONCE AGAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS STARTING MONDAY NIGHT.
THE PATTERN WILL TURN ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN STARTING ON MONDAY NIGHT AS
A SECONDARY WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AND FORCING INCREASES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LARGE SFC LOW UP NEAR JAMES BAY. AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA, A WEAK SFC LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG
THE FRONT AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL START AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS THE FRONT STALLS, SFC LOWS AND/OR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT CAUSING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MID TO LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK. AS THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA, A LARGE TROUGH WILL SETUP OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS POTENTIALLY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH
CYCLONIC FLOW, UPSLOPING, AND POSSIBLY EVEN A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE IF
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL ENOUGH AS SOME GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH SOME BRIEF LOWERING OF
CIGS TO MVFR POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS NEARING 20 KTS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING THIS EVENING.
SUNDAY, VFR WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KTS FOR ALL
TERMINALS, AND NEARING 30 KTS FOR BUF & IAG. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FILLING IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR TO VFR WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF MVFR BECOMING
MORE LIKELY...WITH A COUPLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
CHOPPY, BUT SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
A WESTERLY BREEZE ON THE LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND THE NORTH WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION TO
INCREASE. WINDS ON THE LAKES WILL THEREFORE INCREASE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS
INCREASING. THE ELEVATED WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.
CLIMATE
OUR VERY WET SPRING CONTINUED THROUGH THE MONTH OF APRIL...WITH BOTH
BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN POSTING APRILS THAT WERE AMONG THE TOP 10
WETTEST ON RECORD. THE MONTHLY PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR OUR THREE
CLIMATE SITES WERE AS FOLLOWS:
BUFFALO - 5.58" (6TH WETTEST ON RECORD)
ROCHESTER - 4.08" (TIED FOR 14TH WETTEST ON RECORD)
WATERTOWN - 5.16" (5TH WETTEST ON RECORD)
COUPLED WITH THE EXTREMELY WET MARCH...THE ABOVE RESULTED IN
COMBINED MARCH-APRIL PRECIPITATION TOTALS THAT WERE EITHER THE
WETTEST OR 2ND WETTEST ON RECORD. FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES, THESE
WERE AS FOLLOWS:
BUFFALO - 11.91" (WETTEST ON RECORD - PREVIOUS WETTEST 11.80"/1991)
ROCHESTER - 9.97" (2ND WETTEST ON RECORD, BEHIND ONLY 11.73"/1873)
WATERTOWN - 9.79" (WETTEST ON RECORD - PREVIOUS WETTEST 8.43"/2011)
NOTE THAT PERIODS OF RECORD GO BACK TO JANUARY 1871 FOR BUFFALO AND
ROCHESTER, AND MAY 1949 FOR WATERTOWN.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
NYZ001>006-010-013-014.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
NYZ011-012-019-085.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...SW
CLIMATE...JJR
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