964
FXUS61 KBUF 030608
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
208 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A CHILLY START TO TODAY WITH FROST/A FREEZE IN MANY LOCATIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING.
2) WARMER WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY.
3) INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/A FEW STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A CHILLY START TO TODAY WITH FROST/A FREEZE IN MANY
LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER DRAPED ACROSS OUR REGION LAST EVENING IS
NOW IN THE PROCESS OF SLIDING EASTWARD...WITH THE CLEARING LINE TO
ABOUT THE GENESEE VALLEY AS OF THIS WRITING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES/RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS IN
ITS WAKE ALLOWING FOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE TO DEVELOP
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. FOR THIS REASON...FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AS OUTLINED BELOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WARMER WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
AS WE PUSH THROUGH TODAY AND MONDAY...THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER OF THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS WILL RETROGRADE ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND INTO MANITOBA/
WESTERN ONTARIO...WHERE IT WILL THEN START TO RELOAD AS ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. IN
RESPONSE TO THIS...A NEW SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES/CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE BY MONDAY. THESE DEVELOPMENTS
WILL RESULT IN THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW ALOFT TEMPORARILY TURNING MORE
ZONAL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BACKING TO SOUTHWESTERLY. IN TURN...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INFLUX OF
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION...WITH 850 MB TEMPS WARMING
ENOUGH TO ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO BOUNCE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S
IN MANY AREAS TODAY AND TO THE MID 60S-LOWER 70S MONDAY...WITH A
PASSING WEAK WARM FRONT BRINGING US SOME WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY
MORNING.
THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
FAR WNY AS A COUPLE OF LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENTS PASS ACROSS OR JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE FIRST AND STRONGER OF THESE WILL PASS
ACROSS/ALONG OUR NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH SOME ~35 MPH GUSTS LOOKING TO BE A DECENT BET
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE LATER TODAY AS WINDS ALOFT AND DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING INCREASE. WHILE THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FIRST LLJ (45-50 KTS AT 925 MB) WILL ACTUALLY PASS ACROSS
OUR REGION TONIGHT...THE LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
STABLE THERMAL PROFILES AND THEREFORE LESS EFFECTIVE MIXING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE...WITH GUSTS NE OF LAKE ERIE THUS AGAIN EXPECTED TO
RANGE IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN BE MORE OF THE
SAME ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER...BUT NOTABLY WEAKER (30-35 KNOT) LLJ
SEGMENT RIPPLES ACROSS FAR WNY DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT/
TUESDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/A FEW STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
AS WE PUSH THROUGH MIDWEEK...THE RELOADING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ONCE AGAIN DIG BACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS QUEBEC WHILE SLOWLY PIVOTING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA ALONG THE
FRONT FLANK OF THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL ALSO SPUR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL RIPPLE NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEREBY FURTHER SLOWING ITS
MOVEMENT WHILE ALSO INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT.
COUPLED WITH MOISTURE RETURN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW-MOVING
FRONT PUSHING PWATS BACK TO THE VICINITY OF AN INCH...THIS WILL ALL
ADD UP TO YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED/WET WEATHER
THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THIS ESPECIALLY THE CASE LATER TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN TANDEM WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND THE
ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE WAVES. EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER SOAKING RAINFALL OF DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH
SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING GIVEN THE WARM AIRMASS AND WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY FOUND
OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL THEN REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS OUR
REGION FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND... BRINGING A
RETURN TO MUCH COOLER AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER THAT WILL LAST
THROUGH AT LEAST MOTHER'S DAY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT,
WITH ALL TERMINALS MAINTAINING VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
VFR TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KTS DEVELOPING AT
ALL TERMINALS, AND NEARING 30 KTS FOR BUF & IAG. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FILLING IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT...MVFR TO VFR WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF MVFR BECOMING
MORE LIKELY...WITH A COUPLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST FROM THE APPALACHIANS
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WITH A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT
CROSSING OUR REGION DURING TUESDAY.
AS A RESULT...INITIAL MODEST WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND FRESHEN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATELY BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THEN EXPECTED AT TIMES FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ROUNDS OF NEAR-SCA TO SCA
CONDITIONS AT TIMES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS/
WAVES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF
THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT.
CLIMATE
OUR VERY WET SPRING CONTINUED THROUGH THE MONTH OF APRIL...WITH BOTH
BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN POSTING APRILS THAT WERE AMONG THE TOP 10
WETTEST ON RECORD. THE MONTHLY PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR OUR THREE
CLIMATE SITES WERE AS FOLLOWS:
BUFFALO - 5.58" (6TH WETTEST ON RECORD)
ROCHESTER - 4.08" (TIED FOR 14TH WETTEST ON RECORD)
WATERTOWN - 5.16" (5TH WETTEST ON RECORD)
COUPLED WITH THE EXTREMELY WET MARCH...THE ABOVE RESULTED IN
COMBINED MARCH-APRIL PRECIPITATION TOTALS THAT WERE EITHER THE
WETTEST OR 2ND WETTEST ON RECORD. FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES, THESE
WERE AS FOLLOWS:
BUFFALO - 11.91" (WETTEST ON RECORD - PREVIOUS WETTEST 11.80"/1991)
ROCHESTER - 9.97" (2ND WETTEST ON RECORD, BEHIND ONLY 11.73"/1873)
WATERTOWN - 9.79" (WETTEST ON RECORD - PREVIOUS WETTEST 8.43"/2011)
NOTE THAT PERIODS OF RECORD GO BACK TO JANUARY 1871 FOR BUFFALO AND
ROCHESTER, AND MAY 1949 FOR WATERTOWN.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ001>006-010-
013-014.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ011-012-019-
085.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...JJR
CLIMATE...JJR
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