654
FXUS61 KBUF 050959
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
559 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY WINDS INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
2) SOAKING RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.
3) FROST POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...GUSTY WINDS INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
A LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL FOCUS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF MIXING, BUT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER SCHEMES SUGGESTING MOST AREAS LOOKING AT 25
TO 35 MPH GUSTS, WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH POSSIBLE DOWNWIND
OF THE LAKES. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS LIKELY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON, BEFORE LOWERING AS A COLD FRONT EASES INTO THE REGION
AND THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SOAKING RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TODAY. THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION WILL BE GRADUAL AS THE UPPER FLOW IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK VERY MARGINAL WHICH
WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AS A DEEP PLUME OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1-
1.5" SURGE INTO THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 0.75-1.25" IN MOST AREAS,
THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SWATH OF TOTALS CLOSER TO 1.5" IN THE
CORRIDOR BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN TIER, FINGER LAKES AND TUG HILL
REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE DEEPENING ON HOW
CONVECTION EVOLVES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...FROST POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT LIKELY DROP INTO THE 30S.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST, THOUGH THIS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND THE RESULTING
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LINGERING LLWS OWING TO A 40-45 KNOT JET AT 1.5-2 KFT OFF THE DECK
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH INCREASING DIURNAL MIXING DURING THE
FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE INCREASED MIXING
ALSO ALLOWING SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO QUICKLY CLIMB INTO THE 25-30
KNOT RANGE IN MANY AREAS...AND TO 30-35 KNOTS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MID-AFTERNOON...THEN WILL MARKEDLY
FALL OFF FROM NW-SE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE WE
CAN EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION INTO MIDDAY WITH JUST A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH SOME
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN TREND NOTABLY DOWNHILL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES...WITH DEEPENING
MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG IT GENERATING INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS LOOK TO EXTEND FROM THE INTERIOR OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK...WHERE SOME MODEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. AS ALL THIS OCCURS...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MAINLY
MVFR WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WITH
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY TO MVFR/IFR ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WHILE THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING AND BRING AN END TO ANY INSTABILITY/POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY AND GENERATE ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE RESULTANT
CONTINUED MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS AND DEVELOPING UPSLOPE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS FURTHER
DETERIORATING TO WIDESPREAD IFR ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...
AND TO LIFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST...WITH MORNING IFR/LIFR IMPROVING TO LOW-END VFR ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MVFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
WEAKENING TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TODAY WILL AID IN
BRINGING SOME HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE FOR THE MARINE AREAS WITH
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION, BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE
LASTING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL, WINDS AND WAVES WILL
REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA MOST OF THE TIME,
BUT IT WILL BE VERY CHOPPY ON BOTH LAKES.
SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...TMA
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