777
FXUS61 KBUF 051757
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
157 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY TRANSITIONS TO ANOTHER WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
2) PATTERN BECOMES COOL THROUGH LATE WEEK AND ACTIVE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE WEEKEND.
3) FROST POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY TRANSITIONS TO ANOTHER WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT
INTO WEDNESDAY.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE BUFFALO FORECAST AREA. WIND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35
MPH RANGE WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WHILE AREAS NORTHEAST
OF BOTH LAKE ERIE & ONTARIO WILL HAVE WINDS IN THE 40 TO 45 MPH
RANGE. THE COMBINATION OF A 40-50 KT LLJ AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ALLOW FOR MIXING OF WINDS TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES, UNTIL AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT,
THE LLJ AND THEREFOR THE WINDS WEAKEN.
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WNY AREA, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY CAN
BECOME ESTABLISHED. EARLY CLEARING OVER OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA, PROVIDING BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. THE QUESTION IS WILL MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND TO THE AREA OF CLEARING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. IF INSTABILITY CAN INCREASE, THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ENOUGH SHEAR TO ALLOW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA, MAINLY FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY, WHERE THERE IS
CURRENTLY A 'MARGINAL RISK' FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SPC.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM AROUND 2PM THROUGH 8PM
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
AS THE FRONT TRACKS EAST, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND INFLUX OF
MOISTURE WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE FRONT, EXPANDING THE AREA OF
SHOWERS TO A STEADY RAIN STARTING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR FAR
WESTERN WNY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EAST AS THE COLD
FRONTS EASTWARD PROGRESSION SLOWS (DUE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK ALONG
IT), AND NEARLY STALLS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FINGER LAKES THROUGH
THE NIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT AND STEADY RAIN WILL
START TO SHIFT EAST AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST AND
AS A TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE FRONT STALLED THE
LONGEST FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER TO THE FINGER LAKES AND TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY, THESE AREAS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1.00-1.50", WITH SOME AREAS CLOSER TO 2.00" POSSIBLE.
LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS BELOW 1.00" WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS OF
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER, CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO.
KEY MESSAGE 2...PATTERN BECOMES COOL THROUGH LATE WEEK AND ACTIVE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. A LARGE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF NORTH AMERICA WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND SFC LOWS TRACKING WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH
OVER THE REGION, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
MODEL CERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO RAIN STILL REMAIN A BIT LOW AS
GUIDANCE DOES HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PASSING TROUGHS/LOWS,
BUT THE NEXT SLUG OF RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GO THROUGH ON FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR MOTHERS DAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...FROST POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH END OF THE WEEK. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS FORECAST TO DROP TO THE LOW TO UPPER 30S. FROST MAY FORM
ON THURSDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS WHERE CLEARING IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR
DEVELOP AND WHERE WINDS WEAKEN, ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THERE STILL REMAIN UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOUDY IT WILL BE, AND THUS
PREVENT FROST FORMATION AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A STRONG BUT SLOW MOVING AND WAVY COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD, WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT LIKELY
SPARKING A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST IN THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES EAST OF THE TAF SITES BETWEEN
18Z AND 00Z, THOUGH THE SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN THE WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
ALSO OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A STRONG LLJ WILL CAUSE STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND GUSTS NORTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES. GUSTS OF
35-40KTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT KBUF/KIAG AND KART, WITH GUSTS
MAINLY 25-30KTS ELSEWHERE. THE PEAK GUSTS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY
TURBULENT MIXING UNDER TRANSIENT BREAKS IN THE THICKER CLOUD COVER,
AND SHOULD SUBSIDE ONCE LOWER CLOUDS FILL IN WITH THE FRONT DRAWING
NEAR. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL DIMINISHING OF WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN FURTHER
STABILIZING THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
WITH PERSISTENT SATURATION OF THE LOW LEVELS, CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE TO WIDESPREAD IFR AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. POCKETS OF
LIFR OR LOWER ARE ANTICIPATED THOUGH MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS SOUTH OF BUF AND KROC. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
VARIABLE THOUGH SIMILARLY DETERIORATE TO MAINLY MVFR AND
PERIODICALLY IFR. THESE LOWER VSBYS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY OCCUR IN ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION THAT OCCURS BEFORE 00Z.
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM ROUGHLY NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT
CLEARS THE REGION. CIGS WILL LAG BEHIND THOUGH GRADUALLY IMPROVE
BACK TO MVFR AND VFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE LOWER
CLOUD DECK POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SOUTH OF KROC AND KBUF.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS, THOUGH ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR TO BEGIN THE DAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE, MIXING OF WINDS IS REACHING THE LAKE SURFACES WITH WINDS
TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BEHIND A PASSING
COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEHIND THE FRONT. BUT
UNTIL THEN, SCA HAVE BEEN ISSUED ON ALL NEARSHORE AND RIVER ZONES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE LAKES THROUGH THE
EVENING, BEFORE MORE ORGANIZED RAIN FILLS IN LATER. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REDUCE THE EFFECT OF THE MORE
STABLE MARINE LAYER.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020-
040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ030-042>045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SLZ022-024.
DISCUSSION...SW
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...SW
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