432
FXUS61 KBUF 060607
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
207 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SOAKING RAINFALL CONTINUES THIS MORNING.
2) PATTERN BECOMES COOL THROUGH LATE WEEK AND ACTIVE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE WEEKEND.
3) FROST POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A SOAKING RAINFALL CONTINUES THIS MORNING.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RIDE ALONG A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING. AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN STEADY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
AND RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHEAST AND AS A TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH NEARLY ALL THE RAIN EAST OF THE
AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH THE FRONT STALLED THE LONGEST
FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER TO THE FINGER LAKES AND TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY, THESE AREAS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1.00-1.50", WITH SOME AREAS CLOSE TO 2.00" POSSIBLE.
LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS BELOW 1.00" WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS
OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER, CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO. DUE TO THE
SATURATED GROUND, RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF PONDING
OR LOCALIZED FLOODING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS. RIVERS AND CREEKS
WILL SEE RISES THROUGH FRIDAY, HOWEVER MOST ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
WELL BELOW ACTION STAGES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...PATTERN BECOMES COOL THROUGH LATE WEEK AND ACTIVE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND. A LARGE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
NORTH AMERICA WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION,
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
WITH A PERIOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THIS TIME. THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...FROST POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS COOLER PATTERN ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT LIKELY
DROP INTO THE 30S. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST, THOUGH THIS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND
THE RESULTING RADIATIONAL COOLING.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A SLOW MOVING FRONT AND IMPULSES TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. EXPECT A MIXTURE OF IFR-MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS OF 3-5SM, WITH
OCCASIONALLY LOW VSBYS WITHIN HEAVIER STRATIFORM RAIN. THE STEADIER
RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS BY MID-MORNING, WITH SOME MEASURE
OF ACTIVITY LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THAT SAID...WE SHOULD SEE A SLOW BUT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN
FLIGHT CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST WITH A RETURN
TO VFR BY THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA MIGHT BRING A
LIGHT PASSING SHOWER. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
AREA TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM.
MARINE
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
CREATING CHOPPY CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME, CONDITIONS LOOK UNDER
SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...TMA
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