542
FXUS61 KBUF 061848
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
248 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY.
3) MORE ACTIVE WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
2) COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
FROST POSSIBLE ON SOME NIGHTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY.
STEADIER RAIN HAS SHIFTED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT DRIVING IT HAS FINALLY PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. SATELLITE, RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
SUGGEST A WEAK AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC ROTATION MOVING INTO WESTERN
NY ACROSS THE NIAGARA PENINSULA, WHICH IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. HI-RES CAMS SUGGEST THESE
FINALLY FADING AWAY LATER THIS EVENING, HAVE OPTED TO TAPER THEM OFF
A BIT QUICKER ONCE DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST BUT STILL MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN NBM GUIDANCE.
FOLLOWING A DRIER PERIOD OVERNIGHT, DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME UPSTREAM MOISTURE
ADVECTION MAY CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER ON THE EDGE OF A WEAK LAKE BREEZE THOUGH BUFKIT PROFILES
SUGGEST A FAIR AMOUNT LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR PRESENT AND THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS MAY NOT LINE UP PERFECTLY IN TIME FOR PEAK HEATING. AS
SUCH, CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED AND SUBSEQUENTLY POPS CAPPED AT 30%.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MORE ACTIVE WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
LOW TO MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WHILE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. A 500MB SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, LIKELY CAUSING A BATCH OF SHOWERS
TO RIDE ALONG THE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN RIDGE AND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. STILL A SMALL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
SHORTWAVE, THOUGH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THIS
TIMEFRAME WILL LIE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE OVERHEAD LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF DEEPER GULF-BASED MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES, PROVIDING THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MORE
FUEL FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND POTENTIALLY ANOTHER
SOAKING RAINFALL.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THESE WAVES LIMITS
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS WITH INCREASING FORECAST RANGE, THOUGH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIP. THE FIRST WILL LIKELY COME
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS A SURFACE LOW CLIMBS OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSSES WESTERN OR CENTRAL NY. RAINFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FOCUS MAINLY ACROSS THE CORRIDOR BETWEEN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGIONS, THOUGH WITH ONLY MODEST RAINFALL
GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG A WAVY STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION. THIS SAID, PRELIMINARY FORECASTS
FROM LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST QPF NOT AS HEAVY AS RECENT
RAINFALLS THIS SPRING, CLOSER TO 0.5" FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH FROST POSSIBLE ON SOME NIGHTS.
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MAINTAIN A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE 7-DAY
FORECAST AND POTENTIALLY BEYOND INTO MID-MAY. 850MB TEMPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 0C THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY BEFORE WARMING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PREVAILING, THOUGH A BIT
WARMER AND CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WITHIN THIS COLDER AIRMASS, TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT MAY OCCASIONALLY
SUPPORT FROST HEADLINES IN SOME AREAS. IT IS THE OTHER FACTORS,
PARTICULARLY CLOUD COVER, THAT INTRODUCE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
POTENTIAL. AT THIS VANTAGE POINT THURSDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO HAVE THE
MOST FAVORABLE SETUP FOR A ROUND OF FROST ADVISORIES FOR THOSE
COUNTIES ACTIVE IN THE 2026 FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM. THIS INCLUDES ALL
COUNTIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CATTARAUGUS, ALLEGANY, LEWIS, AND
JEFFERSON.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK OUT OF THE BUF FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DRIZZLE AND/OR MIST WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A VARIETY OF CIGS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PERIODS OF IFR
WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND
WHERE DRIZZLE/MIST OCCURS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST TO A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING.
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT, CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION, WITH MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
FOR ALL TERMINALS. SOME LOWER CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER, LOWERING CIGS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
CURRENTLY LOW ON THAT POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY, MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP, LEADING TO
LOWERED CLOUD BASE HEIGHTS TO MVFR, BUT THAT REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE
BRIEF.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE MORNING WHEN
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
WEAK WINDS AND LOW WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE WITH SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS AT TIMES. WINDS AND WAVES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PP
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...SW
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