038
FXUS61 KBUF 070533
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
133 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND LOWERED FROST CHANCES/COVERAGE
FOR EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING GIVEN
AREAS OF CLOUD COVER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A
FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS CROSSING THE REGION.
2) MORE ACTIVE WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
3) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH A FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS CROSSING THE REGION.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY PARTIALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE SLOW CLEARING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S THROUGH DAYBREAK, WITH ANY LOWER 30S LIMITED TO THE
NORMALLY COLDER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND LEWIS COUNTY. SOME PATCHY
LIGHT FROST IS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS, OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL GENERALLY BE FREE OF FROST EARLY THIS MORNING.
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. COLD AIR ALOFT AND MODEST SURFACE
HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CU/STRATOCU TO DEVELOP TODAY,
ALTHOUGH STABLE LAKE SHADOWS WILL KEEP AREAS EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND
LAKE ONTARIO MORE SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG CONVERGENCE ZONE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THE NIAGARA PENINSULA EAST ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO NEAR ROCHESTER THIS AFTERNOON WHERE LAKE ERIE
ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW INTERACTS WITH THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE BREEZE.
THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL ALLOW AN EAST-WEST BAND OF SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER.
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING, CAPTURING THE MESOSCALE DRIVEN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER AND PUSHING THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EAST ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY INTO THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL NY THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS
LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER BATCH OF CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
FROST POTENTIAL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT, BUT OVERALL THE PATTERN SUGGESTS
TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN JUST MILD ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FROST PATCHY
AND LIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCES OF SOME SHOWERS TO AREAS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH ITS DEPARTURE, WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
WINDOW OF DRIER WEATHER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST PART OF
THE EVENING HOURS. THE PICTURE AFTER THAT GETS A BIT MORE MURKY
WHICH WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE POSITION-TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN A 'WIDESPREAD' SOAKING RAINFALL LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE LACK OF AGREEMENT AMONG VARIOUS MODEL PACKAGES. A BETTER
SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL 'LIKELY' ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THORUGH
TUESDAY.
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MONDAY BEHIND
THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT. WITH THE TROUGH WORKING THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY, EXPECT TO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. A BRIEF WINDOW OF
DRIER WEATHER WILL MATERIALIZE TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. AFTER THAT...ONCE AGAIN UNSETTLE WEATHER MAY RETURN TO THE
PICTURE BUT THIS IS SO FAR OUT TO HAVE ANY REASONABLE CONFIDENCE.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CIGS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN MOST AREAS, WITH ANY REMAINING MVFR
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IMPROVING BEFORE DAYBREAK. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
COLD AIR ALOFT AND MODEST DIURNAL HEATING WILL FORCE EXTENSIVE
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. STABLE LAKE SHADOWS WILL REDUCE CLOUD COVER OVER AND EAST
OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. A STRONG CONVERGENCE ZONE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP FROM THE NIAGARA PENINSULA EAST ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER TO NEAR ROCHESTER THIS AFTERNOON WHERE LAKE ERIE ENHANCED
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTERACTS WITH THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE BREEZE. THIS
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL ALLOW AN EAST-WEST BAND OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER. CONDITIONS
WILL BE VFR MOST OF THE TIME, BUT THE MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS WILL
BRING BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING, CAPTURING THE MESOSCALE DRIVEN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER AND PUSHING THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EAST ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY INTO THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL NY THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS
LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER BATCH OF CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. VFR WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT, WITH SPOTTY MVFR IN AND
NEAR THE MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES.
THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE EAST HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO
TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING ON LAKE ERIE, THEN INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP
DEVELOPING. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH A LIGHT TO
MODERATE CHOP AT TIMES ON BOTH LAKES, BUT WINDS AND WAVES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR/HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
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