342
FXUS61 KBUF 071838
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
238 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUED TO LOWER THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREAS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER CONTINUES
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND NEAR TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT TIMES. WITH A LARGE TROUGH
ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS, SFC LOWS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS. LOCAL MESOSCALE
EFFECTS OFF OF THE LAKES WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AT TIMES AS WELL.
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NNE OF
LAKE ERIE IN THE TYPICAL FAVORED CONVERGENCE ZONE WHERE THE LAKE
ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO LAKE BREEZES COLLIDE. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY IN OR NEAR THE NIAGARA/ERIE COUNTY LINE AND EXTEND EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, NEARING ROCHESTER AT TIMES. A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT, THE FIRST ONE WILL EXPAND SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE
WNY AREA INTO THE EVENING, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
EXPECTED FOR THE I90 AREA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING OF FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE
REGION. BEHIND THE PASSING TROUGH, MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAK SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT TRACKS
FROM NE OHIO TO AND ACROSS CNY. THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER TO
THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AREA AND SHOULD TAPER OFF BY THE MID/LATE
MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA
ON SATURDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH
AND THEN CROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED WITH THIS NEXT ROUND. THESE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING ON SUNDAY
AFTER A BREAK FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, ANOTHER
PASSING TROUGH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING CROSSING THE REGION WILL GIVE A BRIEF
BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER ON TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER TROUGH DIVES
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE THIS STRETCH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE ON SATURDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
PASSING NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER TO CNY HELPS TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. OTHERWISE, AFTERNOON
HIGHS THE REST OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S (AND NEAR 60 AT TIMES), WHICH FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CU BLOSSOMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INLAND FROM
THE LAKESHORES WITH DIURNAL SURFACE HEATING BEING OVERTOPPED BY A
COOL MOIST AIRMASS. MAINLY VFR/LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY). STABLE LAKE SHADOWS WILL GRADUALLY
WORK FURTHER INLAND EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES, CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR OF KART, WHILE THIS SCENARIO WILL YIELD KJHW STANDING
THE BEST CHANCE OF SCATTERING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF
STRONGEST CONVERGENCE WILL BE FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER OVER TO KROC
WHERE THE LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO LAKE BREEZES CONVERGE. THIS
WILL YIELD THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS IN THIS ZONE, WITH JUST THE
CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ELSEWHERE INLAND OF ANY LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY HEAVIER SHOWER.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL HELP SHUNT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EAST THIS
EVENING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. EXPECT AREAS OF VFR/LOW VFR
CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
LATER TONIGHT.
SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH MOST AREAS
DRYING OUT AND MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN PLACE, WITH THE
SOUTHERN TIER RETURNING TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AT TIMES. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WILL PRODUCE A
LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE EAST AND NORTHEAST END OF BOTH LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY,
ALTHOUGH FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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