926
FXUS61 KBUF 072342
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
742 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUED TO LOWER THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREAS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER CONTINUES
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND NEAR TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT TIMES. WITH A LARGE TROUGH
ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS, SFC LOWS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS. LOCAL MESOSCALE
EFFECTS OFF OF THE LAKES WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AT TIMES AS WELL.
TONIGHT, A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE REGION, THE
FIRST ONE WILL EXPAND SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE WNY AREA THIS
EVENING, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE I90 AREA.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING OF FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. BEHIND THE PASSING TROUGH,
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAK SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT TRACKS
FROM NE OHIO TO AND ACROSS CNY. THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER TO
THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AREA AND SHOULD TAPER OFF BY THE MID/LATE
MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA
ON SATURDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH
AND THEN CROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED WITH THIS NEXT ROUND. THESE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING ON SUNDAY
AFTER A BREAK FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, ANOTHER
PASSING TROUGH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING CROSSING THE REGION WILL GIVE A BRIEF
BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER ON TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER TROUGH DIVES
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE THIS STRETCH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE ON SATURDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
PASSING NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER TO CNY HELPS TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. OTHERWISE, AFTERNOON
HIGHS THE REST OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S (AND NEAR 60 AT TIMES), WHICH FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END VFR OR MVFR IS EXPECTED
AT KBUF, KIAG, AND KROC WITH SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND LOW END VFR/MVFR IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND BRING A RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR AND DRY WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
TIMES. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON THE WATERS TONIGHT.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WILL PRODUCE A
LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE EAST AND NORTHEAST END OF BOTH LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SW
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK/JM
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