229
FXUS61 KBUF 080526
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
126 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, ALONG WITH RAIN FREE TIME.
2) PERIODS OF UNSETTLED AND COOL CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, ALONG WITH RAIN FREE
TIME.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, BUT EACH ROUND
WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF WITH PLENTY OF RAIN FREE TIME IN THE MIX.
THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER WESTERN NY BEFORE DAYBREAK,
THEN REACH THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL NY LATER THIS MORNING. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DPVA AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
WILL SUPPORT A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS CROSSING WESTERN NY
EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL NY FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY
LESS THAN 0.20". SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER TO RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. COOL AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CU/STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES, WITH STABLE LAKE SHADOWS ALLOWING
FOR MORE SUNSHINE EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO.
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. OVERNIGHT, A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT WILL ALLOW A
BAROCLINIC WAVE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO PA
OVERNIGHT. THERMAL PACKING AND INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE BAROCLINIC WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN TO
THE SOUTHERN TIER OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THIS SHIELD OF RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE FINGER LAKES AND
CENTRAL NY FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY MORNING, BUT AREAS FARTHER NORTH
AND WEST SHOULD STAY MAINLY DRY, INCLUDING THE BUFFALO, ROCHESTER,
AND WATERTOWN AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED AND COOL CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
AND THEN LIKELY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. AFTER SOME DRY TIME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ARRIVES SATURDAY EVE AND
THEN CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS A WAVY COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE
REGION. A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT MONDAY, WITH A
CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH SET TO
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY. WET AND CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A
DEEP TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING, BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF ASCENT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS CROSSING
WESTERN NY EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL NY
MID MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER END
VFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WITHIN THE AREA OF SHOWERS, WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE. EXPECT PLENTY OF CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON
INLAND FROM THE LAKES WITH VFR BASES. STABLE LAKE SHADOWS WILL BRING
MORE SUNSHINE OVER AND EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON.
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO PA OVERNIGHT,
SPREADING ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER BY LATE
TONIGHT. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER, WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE NEAR THE PA STATE LINE.
VFR WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH THICKENING AND LOWERING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR IN THE MORNING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER
INTO THE FINGER LAKES. MAINLY VFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN TIER
AND FINGER LAKES.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
WINDS AND WAVES REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ONTARIO. WAVE ACTION WILL
BECOME VERY CHOPPY AT A MINIMUM, WITH A CHANCE OF LOW END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR/HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
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