948
FXUS61 KBUF 201021
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
621 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, BRINGING A
FEW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT
THE WORK WEEK.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING, BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND MUCH COOLER
WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EAST-
CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. A MOIST AND MILD AIRMASS RESIDES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MET EARLY IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AN ABRUPT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES AT 850 WILL FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE 40S TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND AREAS OF PATCHY FROST INLAND FROM LAKE ONTARIO
CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB HEIGHTS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. FOLLOWING THIS, THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ZONAL
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS TIME PERIOD
SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD, SOAKING RAIN. THEN, AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, MAINTAINING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GET BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. MVFR/IFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COLD FRONT,
AND MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...POTENTIAL FOR LOW END VFR/MVFR DUE TO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM INTRODUCING RAIN TO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE LAKES TODAY, WITH AN UPTICK
IN WINDS ON THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON LAKE ERIE, HOWEVER MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE CHOPPY CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION, HOWEVER A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY PRODUCE CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE THURSDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ005>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LOZ043>045.
DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK
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