894
FXUS61 KBUF 201824
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
224 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHOWERS DIMINISHING SLOWER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER THIS
AFTERNOON.
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
3) WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
THIS AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER
AIR STARTING TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA, BUT A WEAK SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA MAINTAINING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA KEEPING AT LEAST SOME LOW
PROBABILITY OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE 40S TONIGHT. SOME 30S ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD RESULTING IN A MORE FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING, ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE AREAS
OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND FROM LAKE ONTARIO.
KEY MESSAGE 3...WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A WIDESPREAD, SOAKING RAIN TO
START THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD, SOAKING RAIN ALONG WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
A 40 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL SEND ABUNDANT MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN PERIODS OF VERY EFFICIENT,
HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, LIKELY LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. CURRENT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD ARE GENERALLY 1-1.5 INCHES. THIS
AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING
AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS CAUSE RISES ON
CREEKS/STREAMS, BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WITH THE COLD FRONT LINGERING NEAR BY AND WEAK IMPULSE RIDING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
THROUGH A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY EDGE IN OVER THE LOWER LAKES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW ANY REMAINING MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO IMPROVE TO VFR.
TONIGHT...VFR EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BUT WE WILL SEE N-NE
WINDS SET UP ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR-IFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR-IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING THEN IMPROVING TO
VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MARINE
ELEVATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO INTO TONIGHT, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE EASTERN END
OF LAKE ONTARIO. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL TREND LIGHTER ON LAKE
ERIE, HOWEVER MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE CHOPPY CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS A WAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. EASTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH SMALL CRAFT AND BEACH HAZARDS HEADLINES LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS WILL TREND WEAKER ON LAKE ERIE.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
NYZ005>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LOZ043>045.
DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...TMA
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