115
FXUS61 KBUF 221803
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
203 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTH AND REACH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT, WITH STEADY RAIN MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CATCH UP WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY, AND DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD WITH
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN NEW
YORK SATURDAY MORNING, REACHING CENTRAL NEW YORK SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TUG HILL
REGION AND NORTH COUNTRY UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY. A VERY
TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT AND LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ENHANCED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WHERE
A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET INTERACTS WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS.
THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCLUDE AND AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SATURDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND DEEP
MOISTURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT
LOOSENS ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE HEAVIER RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THIS GRADIENT NEAR LAKE ONTARIO SATURDAY
NIGHT. A DRY SLOT WORKS INTO WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH A DIMINISHING RAIN TREND. THE CURRENT FORECAST
INCLUDES RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.75-1.5" ACROSS THE WESTERN NEW
YORK, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND 0.25-0.50".
THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE PONDING AND
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. RISES ON RIVERS AND CREEKS IS
EXPECTED, WITH A FEW BUFFALO AREA CREEKS POSSIBLY REACHING
ACTION STAGE, BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
SATURDAY, AND ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-
LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER WIND
GUSTS, REACHING UP TO 40 MPH IN DOWNSLOPE REGIONS LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY EVENING.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS WIDESPREAD VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND AND
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SOUTH WHERE AN AREA OF RAIN IS ADVANCING
TOWARDS OUR TAF REGION. SUPPORTING THIS RAIN WILL BE A DEVELOPING
LLJ TONIGHT WITH A BASE AROUND 2K, AND SPEEDS THAT WILL REACH 50-60
KNOTS TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT WEAKEN A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE
NORTH. THIS INCREASING FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCASIONALLY MIX TO THE
SURFACE TONIGHT. AT TIMES WHEN THERE ARE NO SURFACE GUSTS TONIGHT,
THERE WILL BE LLWS FOR THE KJHW TERMINAL.
A PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER LATE
TONIGHT, BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z, WITH RAIN SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS
KIAG/KBUF AND KROC BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z. THIS RAIN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 18Z FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. RAIN WILL BECOME
HEAVIER THROUGH THE FINAL 6 HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE SUCH THAT
OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES BECOME LIKELY, WITH CEILING HEIGHTS
ALSO LOWERING TO MVFR.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...PERIOD OF RAIN, WITH MVFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS, AND HIGHER TERRAIN IFR.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, THEN IMPROVING
TO VFR. ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF COLD
FRONT. MVFR/IFR BEHIND THE FRONT.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS MOSTLY STAYING BELOW 15 KNOTS, HOWEVER WINDS MAY
REACH 20 KNOTS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO.
A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN END OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SMALL CRAFT AND BEACH HAZARDS HEADLINES LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS WILL TREND WEAKER ON LAKE ERIE.
SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE EASTERN END OF LAKE
ONTARIO SUNDAY, WITH AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND ELSEWHERE ON THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WEAK GRADIENT IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...TMA
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