123
FXUS61 KBUF 230612
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
212 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN NY THROUGH
TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS WERE INCREASED ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
2) A WARMUP IS EXPECTED WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH AND
REACH THE WESTERN LAKE ERIE BASIN LATER THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE ADVANCE NORTHWARD.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CATCH UP WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY, AND DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD WITH
PWATS IN THE 90-95TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, STRETCHING
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING, REACHING CENTRAL NEW
YORK THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION AND NORTH COUNTRY UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
A VERY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT AND LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE INTO FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ENHANCED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
WHERE A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET INTERACTS WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS,
WITH A DRY SLOT EXPECTED TO MOVE IN SHORTLY THEREAFTER. IF THERE IS
THUNDER, IT WOULD LIKELY BE LOCATED NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET. THE DRY SLOT WILL GIVE A BREAK TO THE STEADY RAIN, MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TODAY,
AND ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TONIGHT AS THE LOW- LEVEL JET MOVES
OVERHEAD. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER WIND GUSTS, REACHING
UP TO 45 MPH ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
BE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION SO THE WINDOW FOR STRONG GUSTS MAY BE
SHORT-LIVED. WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR FOR NEED OF A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THIS LOCALIZED AREA.
THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCLUDE AND AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON TONIGHT. FORCING AND DEEP
MOISTURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT
LOOSENS ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE HEAVIER RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THIS GRADIENT NEAR LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT. A DRY
SLOT WORKS INTO WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A DIMINISHING
RAIN TREND. THE CURRENT FORECAST INCLUDES RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50-
1.0" ACROSS THE WESTERN NEW YORK, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.5" ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH EVEN LOWER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE TUG HILL INTO
LEWIS COUNTY. THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RISES ON RIVERS AND
CREEKS, WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW ACTION STAGES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WARMUP IS EXPECTED WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING RIDGE WILL KEEP THE REGION
MOSTLY DRY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEAN 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM +11-14C THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S. AFTERNOON LAKE
BREEZES WILL KEEP LAKESHORE LOCATIONS COOLER. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AS OF 06Z DESPITE MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS BUILDING IN AS AN AREA OF RAIN IS ADVANCING TOWARDS THE
REGION. SUPPORTING THE RAIN, WILL BE A DEVELOPING LLJ WITH A BASE OF
2K FT, AND SPEEDS OF 50-60 KNOTS WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND WEAKEN FURTHER NORTH. SOME OF THESE WINDS FROM THE JET MAY
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE TONIGHT, HOWEVER WHEN THERE ARE NO SURFACE
GUSTS TONIGHT THERE WILL BE LLWS AT KJHW.
A PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
EARLY THIS MORNING, BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z, WITH RAIN SPREADING
NORTHWARD ACROSS KIAG/KBUF AND KROC BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z. THIS RAIN
MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVIER THIS AFTERNOON SUCH THAT MVFR VISIBILITIES
BECOME LIKELY WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE, AS WELL AS
CEILING HEIGHTS ALSO LOWERING TO MVFR.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT...PERIODS OF RAIN, WITH MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS, AND HIGHER
TERRAIN IFR.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, THEN IMPROVING
TO VFR. ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF COLD
FRONT. MVFR/IFR BEHIND THE FRONT.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS TODAY AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO
WITH SMALL CRAFT AND POSSIBLE BEACH HAZARDS HEADLINES LIKELY DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS WILL TREND WEAKER ON LAKE ERIE.
SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE EASTERN END OF LAKE
ONTARIO SUNDAY, WITH AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND ELSEWHERE ON THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WEAK GRADIENT IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...HSK
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