709
FXUS61 KBUF 231344
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
944 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY THROUGH 2 AM
SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH GUSTY
WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE.
2) A WARMUP IS EXPECTED WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH AND
REACH THE WESTERN LAKE ERIE BASIN LATER THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE ADVANCE NORTHWARD.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CATCH UP WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY, AND DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD WITH
PWATS IN THE 90-95TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, STRETCHING
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING, REACHING CENTRAL NEW
YORK THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION AND NORTH COUNTRY UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
A VERY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT AND LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE INTO FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ENHANCED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
WHERE A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET INTERACTS WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS,
WITH A DRY SLOT EXPECTED TO MOVE IN SHORTLY THEREAFTER. IF THERE IS
THUNDER, IT WOULD LIKELY BE LOCATED NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET. THE DRY SLOT WILL GIVE A BREAK TO THE STEADY RAIN, MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.
WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TODAY,
AND ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TONIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES
OVERHEAD. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER, A FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE WIND SETUP WILL DEVELOP TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STRONG INVERSION NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIER RIDGETOPS AND A 45-50
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET NORMAL TO THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE TERRAIN BARRIER.
THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 50-55 MPH RANGE TO
THE LEE OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE TODAY
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY THROUGH 2 AM SUNDAY. GUSTS MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH
40-45 MPH ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ON RIDGETOPS AND IN
OTHER, MORE SUBTLE DOWNSLOPE AREAS.
THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCLUDE AND AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON TONIGHT. FORCING AND DEEP
MOISTURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT
LOOSENS ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE HEAVIER RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THIS GRADIENT NEAR LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT. A DRY
SLOT WORKS INTO WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A DIMINISHING
RAIN TREND. THE CURRENT FORECAST INCLUDES RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50-
1.0" ACROSS THE WESTERN NEW YORK, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.5" ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH EVEN LOWER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE TUG HILL INTO
LEWIS COUNTY. THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RISES ON RIVERS AND
CREEKS, WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW ACTION STAGES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WARMUP IS EXPECTED WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING RIDGE WILL KEEP THE REGION
MOSTLY DRY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEAN 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM +11-14C THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S. AFTERNOON LAKE
BREEZES WILL KEEP LAKESHORE LOCATIONS COOLER. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN NY AND FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INCLUDING
KJHW, WHILE MVFR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. RAIN
MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES PRODUCING IFR VISIBILITY THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NY
TODAY. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE ALOFT AND MAY PRODUCE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KJHW THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AFTER 16Z TODAY. SIMILARLY,
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN WITH MVFR ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS INCLUDING KART. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.
A BREAK IN THE RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RAIN SHOWERS FILL BACK INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT. OVERALL, RAIN BECOMES MORE SHOWERY ACROSS WESTERN NY
TONIGHT, WHILE STEADY RAIN CONTINUES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. MVFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF IFR CONTINUING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, THEN IMPROVING
TO VFR. ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF COLD
FRONT. MVFR/IFR BEHIND THE FRONT.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS TODAY AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO
WITH SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE WEAKER ON THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ERIE,
WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE EASTERN
END OF LAKE ONTARIO SUNDAY, WITH AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND
ELSEWHERE ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WEAK GRADIENT IS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ019.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042-
043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR LOZ044-045.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK/HSK
AVIATION...EAJ/HSK
MARINE...HSK
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