565
FXUS61 KBUF 240000
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
800 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF SOAKING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A
RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY.
2) GUSTY WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORE.
3) ABOVE NORMAL AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PERIODS OF SOAKING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY.
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE
THE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK, A PERSISTENT
40-50 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS EVENING. A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO NY AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN TIED TO STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING, WITH AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF RAIN MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA AND HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD
OF THE NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCING MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE RAIN WILL BE
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN THE QUALITY MOISTURE AND
FORCING. A COOL/STABLE AIRMASS WILL KEEP THUNDER CHANCES MINIMAL,
ALTHOUGH SOME VERY LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW
RUMBLES ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS EVENING.
EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING TO REACH 0.75" TO
1.50" ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY, WITH 0.50" TO 0.75" ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER. THESE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL NOT PRODUCE ANY
FLOODING, WITH JUST MINOR PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
SUNDAY, MORNING RAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL END BY MIDDAY.
OTHERWISE, FOR THE REST OF THE AREA EXPECT THE BULK OF THE DAY TO BE
RAIN FREE AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...GUSTY WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORE.
A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN NY THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS, WITH A STRONG INVERSION NEAR
THE RIDGE TOPS AND 40-50 KNOTS OF FLOW NEAR THE BASE OF THE
INVERSION NORMAL TO THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE TERRAIN BARRIER. THIS WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 50-55 MPH RANGE TO THE LEE OF
THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY
THROUGH 2 AM SUNDAY. GUSTS MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH 40-45 MPH
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ON RIDGETOPS AND IN OTHER, MORE
SUBTLE DOWNSLOPE AREAS.
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
WESTERN NY, BUT INCREASE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
MOVES EAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TO THE LEE OF THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU AND THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY TO NEAR FORT DRUM, WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH AT TIMES SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ABOVE NORMAL AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING, WE WILL DRY OUT THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING RIDGE MOVE INTO THE
REGION. MEAN 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM +11-14C
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOW
80S. AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES WILL KEEP LAKESHORE LOCATIONS COOLER.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OUT OF SE CANADA WEDNESDAY, AND COULD
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT WILL BE WORKING WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE. COOLER, BUT NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS THEN DEVELOP
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH TONIGHT. A DEEP PLUME
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, SUPPORTING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE STEADIER AREAS OF RAIN WILL SUPPORT MVFR/BRIEF IFR
VSBY. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING, WITH MVFR FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IFR HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY, MORNING RAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL EXIT BY MIDDAY. THIS
WILL LEAVE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, WITH JUST
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING TOWARDS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
NY. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN IFR IN THE MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE, WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR BY AFTERNOON.
A 40-50 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN NY
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING, THEN GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
SURFACE GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE, AND LOCALLY TO AROUND 40
KNOTS IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IN AREAS WHERE SURFACE WINDS ARE LOWER. AT THE TAF SITES, LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS MOST LIKELY AT KJHW THIS EVENING, AND KART
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.
MONDAY...MVFR CIGS EARLY, IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS.
MARINE
A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE GRADUALLY EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH PARTIAL MIXING
ALLOWING FOR ELEVATED WINDS OVER LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. THE
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE GREATER WAVE ACTION ON
THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER, BUT WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH TONIGHT, AND THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY AT THE EAST
END OF LAKE ONTARIO.
LIGHT WINDS AND MORE FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
MONDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ001>003.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ019.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042-
043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ044-045.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK/SGK
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
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