561
FXUS61 KBUF 240616
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
216 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING, WITH A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
2) GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE NORTHERN TUG HILL
REGION TODAY.
3) ABOVE NORMAL AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING, WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES NORTH TODAY. WHILE A WARM
FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, A 40-50 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF RAIN, PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY.
A STREAM OF DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING WILL
CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME MORE SHOWERY BEFORE ENDING ACROSS WESTERN NY BY
MID-MORNING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN NY TO BETWEEN 0.15 AND
0.50 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY, HOWEVER A
SOUTHERLY, DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY PROVIDE SOME BREAK SIN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE
NORTHERN TUG HILL REGION TODAY.
A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
WIND GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED ALONG THE NORTHWEST SLOPE OF THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE, HOWEVER WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NY EARLY THIS MORNING.
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TUG HILL
REGION TODAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ABOVE NORMAL AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AS THE BASE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST MONDAY MORNING, DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER WILL BE THE STORY THROUGH MIDWEEK. MEAN 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM +12-14C THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S. AFTERNOON LAKE
BREEZES WILL KEEP LAKESHORE LOCATIONS COOLER. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OUT OF SE CANADA WEDNESDAY, AND COULD
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT WILL BE WORKING WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE. COOLER, BUT NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS THEN DEVELOP
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS WIDESPREAD MVFR AND HIGHER TERRAIN IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE FOUND. WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM KROC EASTWARD WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD, WITH TRAILING SHOWERS ENDING NEAR KROC IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT A LATER END TIME EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO OF
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.
THERE WILL STILL BE GUSTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 20 KNOT RANGE FOR KROC
AND KART BEFORE THE 40 KNOT LLJ PUSHES EASTWARD MID-DAY.
BEHIND THIS PRECIPITATION, MVFR CEILING HEIGHTS, WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CEILINGS FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER, WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
THERE MAY BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON A SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW FOR
KBUF, KIAG, KROC AND LATER KART THAT MAY PRODUCE VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS.
THIS EVENING MVFR CEILING HEIGHTS WILL GATHER AGAIN AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...WITH THIS FRONT BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
THE FINAL 9 HOURS OF THIS TAF CYCLE. MODEST INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW
FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING. CEILING
HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER (KJHW) BUT
ALSO POSSIBLE TO IFR FOR KIAG AND KROC AS WINDS VEER TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR CIGS EARLY, IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS.
MARINE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN
LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING, WHILE INCREASING ON THE EASTERN END OF
LAKE ONTARIO TODAY. THE GREATER WAVES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE, HOWEVER
15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING ON LAKE ERIE
AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND THROUGH THIS EVENING ON EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO.
LIGHT WINDS AND MORE FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
MONDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ040.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR LOZ042-043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ044-045.
DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...HSK
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