287
FXUS61 KBUF 241704
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
104 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHTLY DECREASED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON MEMORIAL DAY.
2) TURNING MUCH WARMER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLE.
3) MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT, WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON MEMORIAL DAY.
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING WILL PARTIALLY PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ADVANCING
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE STREAM PHASING WILL SUPPORT A
PERIOD OF DEEP LAYER ASCENT CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT, WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS AND
DPVA ATOP A BAROCLINIC WAVE THAT WILL ENHANCE LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. A PLUME OF DEEP GULF AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS STILL IN PLACE, WITH QUALITY FORCING AND
MOISTURE SUPPORTING ANOTHER PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN.
THE RAIN WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ACROSS WESTERN NY EARLY THIS EVENING,
THEN EXPAND INTO CENTRAL NY AND THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY
LATE EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY MID MORNING MONDAY. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION,
WHERE 0.50" TO 0.75" IS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE A SHARP NORTHWEST
EDGE TO THE HEAVIER RAINFALL, WITH AMOUNTS OF 0.25" OR LESS ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND ROCHESTER AREAS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THIS EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES.
MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY, LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
UPPER 60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TURNING MUCH WARMER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A
FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLE.
AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE WEAKEN AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS
PATTERN WILL LEND ITSELF TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILING WHILE
DRAWING A WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S TUESDAY WILL BE SOME 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.
A SIMILAR STORY FOR WEDNESDAY, THOUGH A CLOSED LOW SLOWLY PIVOTING
ACROSS QUEBEC WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DROPPING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY SHAVE OFF
SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
FINGER LAKES. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A THIN RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT, THOUGH WITH THE LIMITED FORCING THIS
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO PASS THROUGH DRY TUESDAY NIGHT. MLCAPE VALUES
INCREASING TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COULD THEN
SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND AND/OR BEHIND THE FRONT.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE A BIT AT ODDS HERE WITH PRECIP COVERAGE AND
CHANCES IN THIS TIMEFRAME WITH THE ENS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GEFS &
GEPS. THIS SAID, ALL 3 GENERALLY ALIGN WITH THE NBM IN REGARDS TO
THE BEST CHANCES BEING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, AND SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CONUS'
MIDSECTION AND A RELOADING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. WARMER, DRIER WEATHER WILL BE FOUND UNDER THE FORMER WHILE
THE PATTERN IN THE LATTER LOOKS TO BE MUCH COOLER AND MORE
UNSETTLED. THE END RESULT FOR THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE
TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR LATE MAY, WITH JUST
SOME LOW-END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES. BEST CHANCES FOR
OCCASIONAL WET WEATHER WILL BE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE (ESPECIALLY FURTHER WEST) IS LOW AT THIS RANGE.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A FEW SPRINKLES OR PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO, OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN IFR WILL
CONTINUE. GUSTY WINDS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS NY/PA
TONIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE REGION. THE RAIN
WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NY, REACHING
CENTRAL NY AND THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY LATE EVENING. A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER, FINGER LAKES, AND SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION TONIGHT WITH
MVFR/IFR VSBY. THE RAIN WILL BE LIGHT OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, INCLUDING MOST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS.
MVFR CIGS FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IFR HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD IFR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING IN LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG LEFT BEHIND AS
THE RAIN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST. THE LOW STRATUS WILL MIX OUT DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. DRY MOST OF THE TIME, WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
MARINE
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE
ALREADY DIMINISHED ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE.
LIGHT WINDS AND MORE FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ044-
045.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK/PP
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
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