479
FXUS61 KBUF 251025
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
625 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN EXITS THE REGION THIS MORNING, WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON.
2) TURNING MUCH WARMER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLE.
3) MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...RAIN EXITS THE REGION THIS MORNING, WITH INCREASING
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS, ALONG WITH A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN NY THIS
MORNING. A LARGE SWATH OF RAIN EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TO NORTH-CENTRAL NY WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST, EXITING NORTH-
CENTRAL NY BY MID-MORNING.
AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD, LIGHT WINDS AND VERY MOIST SURFACE
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.15-0.35 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION, WITH LESS THAN 0.15 INCHES EXPECTED
FURTHER WEST.
WHILE PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING,
SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 60S FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TURNING MUCH WARMER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A
FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN QUEBEC IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODEST MOISTURE TIED
TO THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, HOWEVER
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY, THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, THE PATTERN SUGGESTS A HIGH-
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CONUS' MIDSECTION AND A RELOADING TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK AND SUPPORT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, AS
MID-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER ON THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING,
AND SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST.
LOWER ATMOSPHERE SATURATION, AND LIGHT WIND FLOW, WILL LOWER CEILING
HEIGHTS TO IFR/MVFR...WITH POSSIBLE LIFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN A MILE ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY DUE TO PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS
MORNING.
BEHIND THIS SURFACE WAVE FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH LINGERING PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW
STRATUS THINNING AND LIFTING THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS RETURNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST. THESE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER
THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. DRY MOST OF THE TIME, WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
MARINE
LIGHT WINDS AND MORE FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR
MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS FRESHEN TO 15 KNOTS ON LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...HSK
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