968
FXUS61 KBUF 251736
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
136 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
2) COOLER BUT SEASONABLE THURSDAY, WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE.
3) UNSETTLED WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
WITH POTENTIAL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR A THUNDERSTORM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL NOSE IN OVER THE LOWER LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A SLOW BUT GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MAX T'S IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SUPPORTING CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
FOG DEVELOPING IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT.
AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG IN SPOTS TUESDAY MORNING, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF FOR SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL COME AS A MID-
LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND ITS COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WEAK FORCING WITH THE FRONT
AND A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF SOME
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COOLER BUT SEASONABLE THURSDAY, WITH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE.
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SECONDARY FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WHICH COULD SPARK OFF
A FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...WITH ITS PASSAGE WE WILL SEE MAINLY DRY
WEATHER BUT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE COOLEST SPOTS
(TUG HILL REGION), WITH 60S ELSEWHERE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...UNSETTLED WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH POTENTIAL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BROADER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WHILE THERE IS SOME TIMING ISSUES
AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, IT APPEARS WE WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE CHANCES
FOR SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL FACILITATE GENERALLY
IMPROVING FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
AS OF ~1730Z, AREAS OF IFR STRATUS REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION, WITH MVFR DIURNAL CU
FURTHER WEST. BOTH OF THESE CLOUD DECKS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND
CLEAR OUT, WITH WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED BY 21Z.
VFR WILL THEN PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. A RELATIVELY
WARM AIRMASS WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER THE COLD LAKES MAY RESULT IN A
MARINE LAYER DEVELOPING WITH MVFR/IFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING
ACROSS LAKE ERIE. WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND, THERE IS A NONZERO
CHANCE THIS LAYER ADVECTS INLAND AND IMPACTS KBUF AND THE
SURROUNDING AREA. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN THIS SCENARIO FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TAF WITH THE HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES GUIDANCE LIKELY
OVERDOING THIS MARINE LAYER INTRUSION, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
OTHERWISE, RIVER VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER MAY RESULT IN
IMPACTS TO CIGS/VSBYS AT KJHW AND OTHER SITES TO THE EAST.
ANY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS THAT DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SHOULD QUICKLY SCOUR OUT
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AREAWIDE VFR WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10KTS OR
LESS WILL THEN PREVAIL.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR TO MVFR. OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MARINE
LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER LAKE ERIE THROUGH MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
A BIT BREEZIER OVER LAKE ONTARIO DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, PERIODICALLY
REACHING THE 10-15KT RANGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SMALL CHOP ON THE
EAST END OF THE LAKE AT TIMES, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, WITH A RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS OVER THE COLD LAKE WATERS,
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR MARINE FOG DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS OVER
LAKE ERIE.
A COLD FRONTAL WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT NORTHERLY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED, THOUGH 1-3' WAVES
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SHORELINES.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATER THIS WEEKEND MAY THEN BRING MARGINAL SCA
CONDITIONS TO THE LAKES BY SATURDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...PP
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