155
FXUS61 KBUF 252337
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
737 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
2) COOLER BUT SEASONABLE THURSDAY, WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE.
3) UNSETTLED WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR A THUNDERSTORM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL NOSE IN OVER THE LOWER LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A SLOW BUT GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MAX T'S IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SUPPORTING CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT.
AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG IN SPOTS TUESDAY MORNING, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL COME AS A MID-
LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND ITS COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WEAK FORCING WITH THE FRONT
AND A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF SOME
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COOLER BUT SEASONABLE THURSDAY, WITH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE.
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SECONDARY FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WHICH COULD SPARK OFF
A FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...WITH ITS PASSAGE WE WILL SEE MAINLY DRY
WEATHER BUT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE COOLEST SPOTS
(TUG HILL REGION), WITH 60S ELSEWHERE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...UNSETTLED WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BROADER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WHILE THERE IS SOME TIMING ISSUES
AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, IT APPEARS WE WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE CHANCES
FOR SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
A RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER THE COLD LAKES MAY
RESULT IN A MARINE LAYER DEVELOPING WITH MVFR/IFR OR LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING ACROSS LAKE ERIE. WITH A LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WIND, THERE IS A NONZERO CHANCE THIS LAYER ADVECTS INLAND AND
IMPACTS KBUF AND THE SURROUNDING AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
SCENARIO FOR RESTRICTIONS ANY LOWER THAN 5-6SM IN THE KBUF AND KIAG
TAFS WITH THE HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES GUIDANCE LIKELY OVERDOING THIS
MARINE LAYER INTRUSION, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE, RIVER
VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER MAY RESULT IN IMPACTS TO CIGS/VSBYS
AT KJHW AND OTHER SITES TO THE EAST.
ANY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS THAT DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SHOULD QUICKLY SCOUR OUT
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AREAWIDE VFR WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10KTS OR
LESS WILL THEN PREVAIL.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR TO MVFR. OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MARINE
LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER LAKE ERIE THROUGH MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
A BIT BREEZIER OVER LAKE ONTARIO DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, PERIODICALLY
REACHING THE 10-15KT RANGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SMALL CHOP ON THE
EAST END OF THE LAKE AT TIMES, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, WITH A RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS OVER THE COLD LAKE WATERS,
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR MARINE FOG DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS OVER
LAKE ERIE.
A COLD FRONTAL WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT NORTHERLY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED, THOUGH 1-3' WAVES
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SHORELINES.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATER THIS WEEKEND MAY THEN BRING MARGINAL SCA
CONDITIONS TO THE LAKES BY SATURDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...PP
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