923
FXUS61 KBUF 260543
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
143 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY, THEN COOLER AND POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK. ADDITIONALLY, FOG
OVER LAKE ERIE MAY MOVE ONSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING, POTENTIALLY
REDUCING VISBILITY FOR THE CITY OF BUFFALO DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.
TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, THORUGH IT WILL BE COOLER
NEAR THE LAKESHORES. WHILE WEDNESDAY WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS TODAY,
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
WESTERN NY AND THE LOW TO MID 70S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY, THEN COOLER AND POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WHILE A THIN RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION OVERNIGHT, MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NY ON WEDNESDAY,
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. ADDITIONAL SHOWERSE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, WITH
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
THE FORECAST MAINTAINS MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO A SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND
TIMING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT WIND ARE FOUND
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER OUR REGION.
WHILE VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON, THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF
CONCERN.
THE FIRST IS THE PROPAGATION OF A THICK DECK OF MARINE FOG OVER LAKE
ERIE. RECENT WEB CAMERAS DISPLAY DOWNTOWN BUFFALO GENERALLY CLEAR,
PROVING THAT INLAND EXTENT THUS FAR HAS BEEN MINIMAL FOR THE FOG. A
LIGHT SSW FLOW THIS EARLY MORNING MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PUSH THIS FOG
INLAND TOWARDS KBUF OR KIAG. THUS WILL PLACE A VCFG INTO THE
KBUF/KIAG TAF AS CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS LOW OF ANY LOWER FLIGHT
CONDITIONS OFF LAKE ERIE.
THE SECOND CONCERN WILL BE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOPING INLAND FROM THE
LAKES, OVER A STILL SATURATED SOIL. HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR VALLEY FOG
FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER THAT MAY EXPAND UP OVER THE KJHW TERMINAL.
WILL PLACE A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITIES IN KJHW FROM 08 TO
12Z.
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FADE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY, ALLOWING FOR A MOISTURE STARVE COLD FRONT TO DROP
SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA TONIGHT. THIS FRONT MAY BRING SOME LOW END VFR
CEILINGS TO KART LATER TONIGHT, BUT OVERALL OUR REGION SHOULD REMAIN
PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR TO MVFR. OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MARINE
LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER LAKE ERIE THROUGH MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
A BIT BREEZIER OVER LAKE ONTARIO DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, PERIODICALLY
REACHING THE 10-15KT RANGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SMALL CHOP ON THE
EAST END OF THE LAKE AT TIMES, PARTICULARLY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, WITH A RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS OVER THE COLD LAKE WATERS,
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR MARINE FOG DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS OVER
LAKE ERIE.
A COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT NORTHERLY
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED,
THOUGH 1-3' WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SHORELINES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATER THIS WEEKEND MAY THEN
BRING MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LAKES BY SATURDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ040-041.
DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...HSK/PP
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