146
FXUS61 KBUF 261343
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
943 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY, THEN COOLER AND POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY, PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TODAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, THOUGH IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORES.
WHILE WEDNESDAY WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS TODAY, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS WESTERN NY AND THE LOW
TO MID 70S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY, THEN COOLER AND POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WHILE A THIN RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION OVERNIGHT, MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NY ON WEDNESDAY,
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, WITH
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
THE FORECAST MAINTAINS MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO A SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND
TIMING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FADE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY, ALLOWING FOR A MOISTURE STARVE COLD FRONT TO DROP
SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA TONIGHT. THIS FRONT MAY BRING SOME LOW END
VFR CEILINGS TO KART LATER TONIGHT, BUT OVERALL OUR REGION
SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR TO MVFR. OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MARINE
LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER LAKE ERIE TODAY THROUGH MUCH
OF WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
A BIT BREEZIER OVER LAKE ONTARIO DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, PERIODICALLY
REACHING THE 10-15KT RANGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SMALL CHOP ON THE
EAST END OF THE LAKE AT TIMES, PARTICULARLY TONIGHT.
WINDIER CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ON THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING INTO
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
OTHERWISE, WITH A RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS OVER THE COLD LAKE WATERS,
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR MARINE FOG DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS OVER
LAKE ERIE.
A COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT NORTHERLY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED, THOUGH 1-3' WAVES CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SHORELINES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATER
THIS WEEKEND MAY THEN BRING MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LAKES BY
SATURDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SLZ022-
024.
DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/HSK
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