056
FXUS61 KBUF 261741
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
141 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
2) A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE, FOLLOWED BY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH SUNSHINE AND 850MB
TEMPS WARMING TO +13C OR BETTER SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE INFLUENCES.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHARPEN ACROSS QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A
MOISTURE STARVED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF MOISTURE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT
AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT LAGGING WELL BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
KEEP MOST AREAS DRY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. THERE IS A
LOW END CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER, BUT EVEN
HERE THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN IS 20 PERCENT OR LESS.
THE ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION BY AFTERNOON WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH MID TO
UPPER 70S IN MOST AREAS AND LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE,
FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH PASSING WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
A DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
QUEBEC FRIDAY, THEN CROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES, USHERING IN A COOL AIRMASS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THE STRONGER FORCING AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE AREA ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE MOISTURE
STARVED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR ACROSS ALL AREA TERMINALS THROUGH
THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.
A WEAKENING FRONT WILL NEAR THE REGION THIS EVE-TONIGHT, WITH LITTLE
IMPACT TO MOST AREA TERMINALS. THAT SAID...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE
MAYBE SOME LLWS AS A LLJ OF 35-40 KNOTS MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
ADD THIS TO THE KART TAF.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR TO MVFR. OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MARINE
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ON THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15-20 KNOT
RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE ON LAKE
ONTARIO TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A LIGHT CHOP.
WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON BOTH LAKES.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AND INCREASE SOMEWHAT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH A LIGHT CHOP
DEVELOPING ON LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, AND MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SLZ022-
024.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
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