061
FXUS61 KBUF 270608
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
208 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TREND SOMEWHAT
COOLER ON THURSDAY, WITH A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
2) A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE, FOLLOWED BY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TREND
SOMEWHAT COOLER ON THURSDAY, WITH A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
WILL SHARPEN AND PIVOT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA BETWEEN THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN
ATTENDANT DEARTH OF MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT LIKELY
RESULTING IN MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY. WHILE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...850 MB
TEMPS WILL STILL RANGE FROM +8C TO +10C ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO
+13C TO +14C ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BOTH
THIS AND INCREASING SUNSHINE/GOOD MIXING ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE DAY
OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE MAIN AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT INCREASE IN LIFT
AND MOISTURE BRINGING A SOMEWHAT BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY LATER TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO. AT THE SAME TIME AN ASSOCIATED POOL OF NOTABLY
COOLER AIR ALOFT OVERSPREAD OUR REGION...WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE +3C TO +5C RANGE THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE REBOUNDING
SLIGHTLY LATER IN THE DAY. CONSEQUENTLY...WE CAN EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
TO SETTLE BACK TO SOMEWHAT BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS ON THURSDAY...WHEN
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE,
FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
A DEEP...BUT FAIRLY QUICK-MOVING CLOSED LOW STILL LOOKS TO DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON FRIDAY...BEFORE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH ITS ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER
SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY WHEN TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLEST.
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT MAY ALSO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...
WITH THIS POTENTIAL GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY/CENTRAL NY
WHERE MOISTURE AND FORCING BOTH LOOK TO BE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH LARGELY IF NOT COMPLETELY DRY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS GENERALLY TENDING TO
THIN OUT DURING THE DAY.
THE AXIS OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN SAG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
AREA LATER ON TONIGHT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
LIFT BRINGING AN INCREASE IN VFR-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY ALSO
GENERATING SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR THESE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.
MARINE
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BECOMING WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISHING
TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE.
WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO NORTHERLY AND INCREASE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH A LIGHT CHOP DEVELOPING ON BOTH LAKES.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY AND/OR FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BOTH OUT AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJR
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
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