266
FXUS61 KBUF 122027
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
427 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY TODAY.
2) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.
3) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY TODAY.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE
EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, THIS MORNING HEAT AND HUMIDITY HAVE BEEN ON THE RISE
SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION TO WARM UP INTO 80S, WHEREAS PREFRONTAL CLOUD COVER
AND NOW ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR FROM THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL A FEW DEGREES FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOW 70S.
EXPECT LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ROCHESTER EASTWARD MAY SEE
TEMPERATURES WARM UP A FEW DEGREES MORE BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGES
KNOCKS CONDITIONS COOLER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC, WILL SEND IT'S
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS FRONT HAS ENCOUNTERED A
WARM SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES, A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INCREASE
AS THE FRONT ADVANCES FURTHER TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
CONTINUES TO BE OF A LESSER DEGREE, AND IS LIMITED TO THE FAR
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. SHOULD STORMS BECOME SEVERE, THE MAIN
HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE PWAT VALUES
RANGE BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SUNDAY.
THE NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE MID-
LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO, PASSING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE, A SURFACE LOW WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SUPPORTING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO PASS EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHCENTRAL NEW YORK. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY.
SIMILAR TO TODAY AND AS OF THIS FORECAST ITERATION, THE TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DOEN'T ALIGN WITH THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AND THEREFORE AT THIS TIME, IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ELEVATED WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT, DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH UNLIMITED VFR
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY, THEN MVFR-IFR WITHIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, MVFR POSSIBLE WITHIN A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
MARINE
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. PRECEDING THE FRONT, SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN UNDER 15 KNOTS. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL FRESHEN
SOUTHWESTERLIES UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS, AS SEEN ON LAKE ERIE. WAVE
HEIGHTS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 4 OR 5 FEET ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF LAKE
ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL RELAX TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. SPEED OF UP TO 15 KNOTS MAY CREATE SOME
CHOPPY CONDITIONS AT TIMES ON BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN OUT OF THE WESTERLY BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. SPEEDS NEAR 20 KNOTS ON LAKE
ONTARIO MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES, ESPECIALLY
ON THE EASTERN END.
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY WILL BRING THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH COULD TRIGGER MARINE WARNINGS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HIGHER WAVES. THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ005>007.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ010-
085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ042-043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ044-045.
DISCUSSION...EAJ
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...EAJ
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