456
FXUS61 KBUF 130003
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
803 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FAIR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SUNDAY WITH AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...FAIR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SUNDAY WITH AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL PROVIDE US WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THINGS WILL THEN DETERIORATE ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE BASE OF A MID-LEVEL LOW NEAR JAMES BAY
AND PASSES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW MAKING ITS WAY FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. IN THE PROCESS...THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL SWING ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE
RETURN (PWATS CLIMBING TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES) OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
COMBINING WITH FORCING FROM THE FRONT/SURFACE WAVE...DCVA/HEIGHT
FALLS ALOFT...AND FAVORABLE UPPER JET COUPLING TO GENERATE A ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE A CURRENT MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS STILL TENDS TO FAVORS AN
EARLIER FRONTAL TIMING THAT WOULD KEEP INSTABILITY LEVELS WEAK TO
MODEST AND THEREFORE LESS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORMS...SOME
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO PORTRAY A SOMEWHAT SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WHICH WOULD IN TURN ALLOW FOR GREATER AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. WERE THIS TO BE REALIZED...THE STRONG
FORCING AND PRESENCE OF A 40-60 KNOTS OF DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR
(SIGNIFICANTLY MORE THAN WHAT WAS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION DURING
THURSDAY) COULD PRESENT A RISK FOR AT LEAST A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY RISK.
THIS POTENTIAL IS CAPTURED BY SPC'S LATEST DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
WHICH PLACES OUR ENTIRE AREA WITHIN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOUND INLAND FROM THE LAKES.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER AND
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY, THEN MVFR-IFR WITHIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, MVFR POSSIBLE WITHIN A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
MARINE
MODERATELY BRISK WESTERLIES TO SOUTHWESTERLIES EARLY THIS EVENING
WILL RELAX SOME TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THOUGH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
MAY STILL PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN WESTERLY LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SPEEDS NEAR 20 KNOTS ON
LAKE ONTARIO MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES, ESPECIALLY
ON THE EASTERN END.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY WILL ALSO HELP TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS
POSSIBLY PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ005>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ044-
045.
DISCUSSION...JJR
AVIATION...AR/JJR
MARINE...EAJ/JJR
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