741
FXUS61 KBUF 130545
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
145 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS INCREASED ON SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SUNDAY WITH A SEVERE WEATHER
RISK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SUNDAY WITH A
SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE BASE OF A MID-LEVEL LOW
NEAR JAMES BAY AND PASS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. A
SURFACE WAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY, SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND
GENERATE A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM, FAVORABLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO 1.5-
1.75 INCHES, AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP INCREASE INSTABILITY,
WITH CURRENT MODELED VALUES AROUND 500-1000 J/KG, AND 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR TO 40-50 KNOTS. WITH THESE INGREDIENTS, THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
INLAND FROM THE LAKES.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER AND
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY, THEN MVFR-IFR WITHIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, MVFR POSSIBLE WITHIN A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
MARINE
LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KNOTS, CREATING CHOPPY CONDITIONS AT TIMES ON LAKE ERIE
AND LAKE ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN WESTERLY
LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
SPEEDS NEAR 20 KNOTS ON LAKE ONTARIO MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINES, ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN END.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY WILL ALSO HELP TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, WITH SOME OF THE STORMS
POSSIBLY PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
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