558
FXUS61 KBUF 131835
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
235 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SUNDAY WITH A SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAINFALL RISK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SUNDAY WITH A
SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL RISK.
QUIET, SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY.
A LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ON A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
PROVINCE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED AS A SHORTWAVE
PIVOTS THROUGH ITS BASE AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE,
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST, WITH A SECONDARY WAVE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HINDERING
ITS PROGRESSION. THIS WILL CAUSE MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MESSY LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR TYPE OF SETUP. BRISK
35-40KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
DRIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 40KTS TOMORROW. THE
INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE IN WNY IN THE
MORNING HOWEVER. COMBINED WITH POTENTIAL LAKE SHADOWING, THIS SHOULD
LIMIT MUCAPE VALUES TO JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE SECONDARY WAVE RIDES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT, AS THIS MAY
CAUSE IT TO SLOW ENOUGH SUCH THAT GREATER INSTABILITY (500-1000J/KG)
CAN BUILD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION, HEIGHTENING
THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THIS LINES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH
SPC'S ASSESSMENT AND SUBSEQUENT DAY 2 MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK AREAS.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, WITH THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY PRECLUDING A GREATER HAIL THREAT AND LOW 0-1KM SRH
MINIMIZING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
PWATS CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.5-1.75" ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE AMPLE FUEL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PRODUCE A
FEW DRENCHING DOWNPOURS. PRIMARY CONCERN HERE CONTINUES TO BE WITH
THE SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WAVE, WHICH WILL SLOW THE OVERALL
PROGRESSION OF STORMS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. BASIN-
AVERAGED AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND AN INCH, THOUGH
REFS LPMM QPF INDICATES A COUPLE OF SWATHS OF 2-3" OVER A COUPLE OF
HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND UPPER GENESEE VALLEY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR AREA SEEING THIS MUCH
RAINFALL.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. MODEST
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE COMING OFF LAKE ERIE WILL RESULT IN GUSTS 20-
25KTS AT KBUF/KIAG/KROC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS
FRONT, ARRIVING AT KIAG AS EARLY AS 13Z. THESE MAY CONTAIN LOCALIZED
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS, THOUGH THE UNFAVORABLE TIMING AT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LENDS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TSRA POTENTIAL. HAVE COVERED
THIS WITH PROB30S FOR NOW WITH THE 18Z TAFS.
MORE WIDESPREAD LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR/IFR IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT ITSELF SUNDAY AFTERNOON, LIKELY BEGINNING AT KBUF/KJHW/KIAG
AROUND 18Z.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS EARLY. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM SOUTH AND
EAST OF KBUF/KROC.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH PERIODIC
SHOWERS/STORMS CROSSING THE REGION.
MARINE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH
SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS, CREATING CHOPPY CONDITIONS AT TIMES ON LAKE
ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN WESTERLY
LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
SPEEDS NEAR 20 KNOTS ON LAKE ONTARIO MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINES, ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN END.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY WILL ALSO HELP TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, WITH SOME OF THE STORMS
POSSIBLY PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PP
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...PP/TMA
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