313
FXUS61 KBUF 140823
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
423 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY, SOME OF WHICH MAY
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
2) DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY AND NOTABLY COOLER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY, SOME OF
WHICH MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS
THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE DIRECTS A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES.
SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AS GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
A LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR (+40) ENVIRONMENT. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME
MEASURE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT AROUND 11Z-13Z. AFTER THAT...A LINE OF STORMS IS
ADVERTISED TO THEN COMES MARCHING IN BETWEEN 18Z-21Z THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE FRONT. CAPE VALUES STILL ARE 'NOT' ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH
BETWEEN 900-1200 J/KG AWAY FROM THE LAKES. SPEAKING OF WHICH, IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH THE LAKES WILL EVEN INFLUENCE THE
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION. EVEN SO...GIVEN THE DECENT SHEAR STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY
RISK DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SPC HAS CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT OUR REGION
IN A MARGINAL-SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...PWATS
WILL BE FOUND IN THE 1.5-1.75" RANGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE IF STORMS WERE TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL, WITH AN EXPANSION OF THE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS JEFFERSON AND
FAR NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY AND NOTABLY COOLER.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM NW TO SE SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT, WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS SPILLING IN ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MONDAY EXPECT DRY WEATHER BUT
COOL CONDITIONS AS H850 T'S DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 11Z-13Z THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT NEARS AND
THEN CROSSES THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
ABOUT LOCALIZED IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO AREA TERMINALS.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT LINGERING MVFR-IFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH A RETURN TO VFR OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD AND ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, SOME OF WHICH
MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER WAVE ACTION.
WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT, WHICH MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO
THE LAKES. LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVE ACTIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR
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