524
FXUS61 KBUF 141641
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1241 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, SOME OF WHICH
MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
2) DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY AND NOTABLY COOLER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON,
SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE SEND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR (+40)
ENVIRONMENT. LATEST CAMS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A LINE OF STORMS
PUSHING INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z-21Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT.
CAPE VALUES DO NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE DUE TO MORNING SHOWERS AND
CLOUD COVER. DESPITE THE LACK OF INSTABILITY, GIVEN THE DECENT SHEAR
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE
PRIMARY RISK DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR REGION IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...PWATS WILL BE FOUND
IN THE 1.5-1.75" RANGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IF STORMS WERE TO
TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATION THE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL, WITH AN EXPANSION OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS JEFFERSON
AND FAR NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY AND NOTABLY COOLER.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS SPILLING IN ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MONDAY EXPECT DRY
WEATHER BUT COOL CONDITIONS AS H850 T'S DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
NEARS AND CROSSES THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BRING ABOUT LOCALIZED IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO AREA
TERMINALS.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT LINGERING MVFR-IFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH A RETURN TO VFR OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD AND ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, SOME OF WHICH
MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER WAVE ACTION.
WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT, WHICH MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO
THE LAKES. LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVE ACTIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...AR
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