293
FXUS61 KBUF 150000
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE CANCELLED THE REST OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY AND NOTABLY COOLER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY AND NOTABLY COOLER.
THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA AS OF THIS WRITING...AND WITH
THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS HAVING ENDED...HAVE CANCELLED THE REST
OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT. IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS AND A FEW LEFTOVER RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL
WIND DOWN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS A MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EXPECT DRY WEATHER...BUT COOL
CONDITIONS AS 850 MB TEMPS DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. GENERAL MVFR/SPOTTY IFR CEILINGS THIS
EVENING ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WITH THIS IMPROVEMENT TAKING PLACE LAST ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY. ONCE ESTABLISHED...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MARINE
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS ALSO TURNING WESTERLY TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY AND FRESHENING SOME AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE NIGHT...
WITH THIS ESPECIALLY THE CASE ON LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME LOWER-END
SCA-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL THEN BRING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 1 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ001-002.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 1 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ005-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LOZ043>045.
DISCUSSION...JJR/TMA
AVIATION...JJR/TMA
MARINE...JJR
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