797
FXUS61 KBUF 150743
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
343 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER TODAY AND NOTABLY COOLER.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY WEATHER TODAY AND NOTABLY COOLER.
SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. LINGERING
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL SUPPORT SOME MEASURE OF UPSLOPE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER...BUT
COOL CONDITIONS AS 850 MB TEMPS DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHS
WILL BE FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTISED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. AT THE SFC, THE LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST
AND NORTHEAST WITH ITS WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS FEATURE MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AS IT ADVANCES THORUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...TUESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY BUT JUST COULDN'T RULE OUT A
SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED STORM. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUES INTO
THURSDAY. THERE IS EVEN A SUGGESTION THAT WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG
GUSTY WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY OFF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND A POTENT LLJ (+70 KNOTS) WE WILL 'LIKELY' SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WORK EASTWARD INTO AND ACROSS
THE REGION. OTHERWISE...ITS LOOKING LIKE THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES WILL BE FOUND AT KJHW AND KART
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AND DRIER AIR SPILLING INTO THE REGION WILL
BRING UNLIMITED VFR AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT CHOPPY WATERS ON LAKE ERIE AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL THEN BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST
TO EAST TODAY, WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVE ACTION THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WE MAY
SEE SOME CHOP;Y CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON BOTH LAKES AND ALSO A LOW END
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUES INTO
THURSDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT WE COULD SEE WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 35 KNOTS ON BOTH LAKES APPROACHING LOW END GALES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ001-002.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ005-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ043>045.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR
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