506
FXUS61 KBUF 160726
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
326 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TODAY WELL
INLAND FROM THE LAKES.
HAVE AGAIN BUMPED WINDS UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKES. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL COME TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
2) ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVE-NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKES. ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL COME TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING IN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
WEAKEN AND THEN EXIT OFF TO OUR EAST TODAY. MEANWHILE...A COMPACT
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON-
EVE. WHILE A VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DRY
WEATHER THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DURING PEAK HEATING. LOW CHANCES (< 20%) GIVEN WEAK
FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE ( PW < 1.0 INCH) BUT WE STILL CAN'T
RULE OUT SEEING SOMETHING FIRE UP WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKES.
ADDITIONALLY...WINDS PICK UP A BIT NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON AS A MODEST JET ALIGNS WITH THE LAKES WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH. THE COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL NEAR THE LOWER LAKES LATE TONIGHT
AND THEN PASS BY TO OUR NORTH ON WEDNESDAY WHILE WEAKENING AS IT
HEADS OFF INTO QUEBEC. AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA WE WILL SEE A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVE-NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE UPPER MID-WEST
WEDNESDAY AND THEN RACES EAST. MEANWHILE...A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC
LOW WILL BEGIN TO TRACK THROUGH MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY EVE AND THEN
SLOWLY TO OUR WEST OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE DETAILS WILL STILL NEED TO
BE WORKED OUT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY, AND ALSO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. LETS TALK
WINDS...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LLJ (+60-70 KNOTS) WILL COME RACING
INTO WNY LATE WEDNESDAY EVE-NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL WE MAY SEE
SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS WEST OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE, AND ALSO
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THAT SAID...WINDS MAY 'NOT' MATERIALIZE
(LOW CONFIDENCE) GIVEN GUIDANCE SHOWS PRECIP RAPIDLY MOVING IN WITH
THE LLJ. EVEN SO...THIS THREAT STILL NEEDS TO BE MENTION IN THE HWO
WITH POTENTIAL FUTURE HEADLINES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW JUST TO
OUR WEST THERE WILL BE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY TO SEE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING...A FAIRLY DECENT LLJ WILL STILL
RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. GIVEN DECENT ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE
RISES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WE
COULD SEE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH OR GREATER. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE NORTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BACKING UP A BIT...THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE MONITOR CLOSELY TOO.
ALTHOUGH THE TIMING IS LESS THAN FAVORABLE...A STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
LAST BUT NOT LEAST...PW VALUES WILL BE FOUND IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES
WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT TODAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS
AT KIAG AND KBUF. LESSER WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE (< 20 %) BUT LIKELY WILL NOT IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS WITH
VFR CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE LOWER LAKES LATE THIS
EVE AND TONIGHT, WHICH WILL BRING A SLIGHT BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OR EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY..MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR TO IFR WITHIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
SOME CHOP WILL BE FOUND ON AREA LAKES THIS MORNING BUT OVERALL
MINIMAL WAVE ACTIONS IS EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND WAVES WITH
SUBSEQUENTLY MARINE HEADLINES. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT WE
COULD SEE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KNOTS ON BOTH LAKES AND APPROACHING
LOW END GALES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR
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