264
FXUS61 KBUF 162324
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
724 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AT
TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT DRY MOST OF THE TIME.
2) A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT DRY MOST OF THE TIME.
THIS AFTERNOON, MODEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW/MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM COOL AIR ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN AGITATED CUMULUS FIELD INLAND FROM THE LAKES.
THE BEST CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO HEIGHT FALLS AND WEAK
DPVA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO SOUTHERN TUG HILL
REGION, BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY.
TONIGHT, A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE AND SOUTHWEST
ONTARIO OVERNIGHT, WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE DRY, THEN RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NY AS IMPROVED
MOISTURE AND FORCING ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY LEFT TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.
WEDNESDAY, THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN NY IN THE MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND REACH THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FORCING AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER DIURNAL INSTABILITY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BY
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON, WHERE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND IN THE AFTERNOON.
FARTHER WEST, A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF ENHANCED FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE FROM
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES IN THE AFTERNOON. AN
EXPANDING STABLE LAKE SHADOW SHOULD KEEP THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DRY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN TO AROUND 987MB NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW FOR MID-JUNE IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE HAZARDS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
PRECIPITATION...
A 60-70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-
CENTRAL NY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND EXPECTED PWATS
OF OVER 1.5 INCHES (80TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-JUNE) WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE
FRONT SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC THURSDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT AS WELL AS THE COVERAGE OF POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS, HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH WITH DRY TIME ACROSS
WESTERN NY THURSDAY. THE ADVANCING FRONT, WEAK INSTABILITY AND A
VERY STRONG WIND FIELD MAY SUPPORT STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION TO EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS
THIS AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1) OF SEVERE WEATHER.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH BASIN AVERAGES OF
0.25-0.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGHER END
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY, SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE TUG
HILL AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. DOWNSLOPING FROM A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL LEAD TO LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS...
THE TRACK OF THE STRONG LOW IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. THE STRONG NON-
THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO COME IN TWO ROUNDS, PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTHERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY,
HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT TIMES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE STRONG 60-70KT LOW-LEVEL JET AND INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WITH EXPECTED WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOCALIZED AREAS OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
DOWNSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND SOUTHERN SLOPES OF
THE FINGER LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THE NORTHERN TUG HILL
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN AND A
WEAKER INVERSION IS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN STRONG WINDS REACHING THE
GROUND IN FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS. THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL MOVE EAST AS THE FLOW BEGINS TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS
THE REGION. WELL-ALIGNED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG LAKE ERIE WITH
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE PASSING LOW ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45MPH, WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF WIND GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 55 MPH NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. THE CORE
OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATER THURSDAY AND
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS ARE MORE COMMON IN THE COOL SEASON WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A GREATER AMOUNT OF WIND DAMAGE DUE TO FULLY LEAFED
OUT TREES. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WIND HEADLINES WILL BE
NEEDED.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO SOUTHERN TUG HILL
REGION, BUT MOST AREAS WILL STAY RAIN FREE. A MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS CROSSING THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST. CIGS/VSBY WILL STAY MAINLY VFR IN THESE
SHOWERS WITH THE LOW LEVELS REMAINING UNSATURATED. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDER
WILL BE SPARSE.
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY, WHERE
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST, A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF ENHANCED FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
INTO THE FINGER LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN EXPANDING STABLE
LAKE SHADOW NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE SHOULD KEEP KBUF AND KIAG DRY
IN THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR TO IFR WITHIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, BECOMING SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTS MAY EXCEED 40 KNOTS AT TIMES.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES WITH LOCAL/BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP AT
TIMES ON LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, BUT
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL THEN TRACK FROM LOWER MICHIGAN
AND LAKE HURON LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING TO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM
WOULD BE COMMONPLACE IN LATE FALL OR WINTER, BUT RARE FOR JUNE. A
STRONG WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
STRONG WINDS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, FIRST WITH STRONG SOUTHERLIES
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT A MINIMUM, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS A
POSSIBILITY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY
THURSDAY EVENING, ON A CLASSIC TRACK TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE COMBINATION OF ABOVE AVERAGE LAKE LEVELS, STRONG WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS, AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION MAY BRING AN
INCREASED RISK OF LAKE SHORE FLOODING AT THE EAST END OF LAKE
ONTARIO THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
WINDS AND WAVES ARE CURRENTLY NEAR THE LOW END OF THE
ESTABLISHED THRESHOLD FOR LAKESHORE FLOODING.
FLOODING IS MOST PROBABLE IN LOW LYING SHORELINE AREAS FROM
NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY INTO JEFFERSON COUNTY. WATER LEVELS MAY
ALSO RISE ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER IN THE THOUSAND ISLANDS
REGION AS STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS FORCE AN INCREASED FLOW OF
WATER DOWN THE RIVER.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK/HSK
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/TMA
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HITCHCOCK
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