216
FXUS61 KBUF 170654
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
254 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED WIND GUSTS SOME ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN ABNORMALLY STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AN ABNORMALLY STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY.
A STRONG SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT, CENTERING ALONG THE ON/QC BORDER THURSDAY
MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST FURTHER INTO QUEBEC
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEMS WARM FRONT AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRACK
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. INCREASING
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE FORCING FROM THE FRONT AND LLJ WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES AND
FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SYSTEM AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MID MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG
GUIDANCE ON THE EXACT COLD FRONT TIMING DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE MAIN
SFC LOW. SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT, BUT THERE IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS PASSING TROUGH WILL HELP CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SOME SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NY STILL EXPECTED IN THE RANGE OF 0.25-
0.75" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE STRONG SFC LOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
FOR THE FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE, TUG HILL
AND NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FINGER LAKES. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND THEN THE SOUTHWEST.
WIND GUSTS FOR DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL REACH THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST, WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE AREA UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST AREAS,
WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 55 MPH AT TIMES FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE. WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG SFC LOW AND A STRONG LLJ OF UP TO
65-75 KTS. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS THE SFC LOW LINGERS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH
FRIDAY, SLOWLY WEAKENING IN THE PROCESS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY, HOWEVER CLOUD
COVER SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND OVERALL
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG WIND FIELDS THOUGH FOR THURSDAY WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF A HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE TYPE SCENARIO, SO ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING GUSTY WINDS IN
ADDITION TO WHAT IS ALREADY EXPECTED. AREAS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY
EASTWARD ARE IN A LEVEL 1/5 'MARGINAL RISK' AND FAR EASTERN LEWIS
COUNTY IS IN A LEVEL 2/5, 'SLIGHT RISK' OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITHIN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, WITH AN AREA OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS CROSSING THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST.
THESE MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE SOME HIGHLY LOCALIZED MVFR VISIBILITIES AS
THEY PASS THROUGH THE AREA...ALONG WITH SOME BRIEF SOUTHWESTERLY
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OR SO ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.
OTHERWISE...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TODAY.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER SOME DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AS IT CROSSES THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. FURTHER WEST...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF THE ENHANCED FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE MAY ALSO LEAD TO A COUPLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH DRY/VFR
WEATHER OTHERWISE PREVAILING. NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE...THE ENHANCED
SW FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME 20-25 KNOT GUSTS AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR JUNE MAKES ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WITH THE GREATEST
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND WORST FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN
LATER THIS EVENING AND THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.
THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW AND STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELDS WILL ALSO LIKELY LEAD TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS LATER THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO EXCEED 40 KNOTS AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE SOUTHWEST OF
BUFFALO LATER TONIGHT AND WITHIN THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE
DURING THURSDAY. FINALLY...A PERIOD OF LLWS IS ALSO LIKELY TO
PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY SURFACE GUSTS
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES WITH LOCAL/BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY AND INTO THE
EVENING, WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
A STRONG SFC LOW TRACKING NORTH OF THE LAKES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WILL INCREASE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST, SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
ON THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON ALL MARINE ZONES AND SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MOST OF, IF NOT ALL MARINE ZONES, WITH
HIGHER END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LAKE ZONES. WINDS MAY
BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO NEED GALE WARNINGS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL
A BIT LOW ON THE NEED FOR GALES.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY THURSDAY
EVENING, ON A CLASSIC TRACK TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE COMBINATION OF ABOVE AVERAGE LAKE LEVELS, STRONG WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS, AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION MAY BRING AN
INCREASED RISK OF LAKE SHORE FLOODING AT THE EAST END OF LAKE
ONTARIO THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
WINDS AND WAVES ARE CURRENTLY NEAR THE LOW END OF THE
ESTABLISHED THRESHOLD FOR LAKESHORE FLOODING.
FLOODING IS MOST PROBABLE IN LOW LYING SHORELINE AREAS FROM
NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY INTO JEFFERSON COUNTY. WATER LEVELS MAY
ALSO RISE ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER IN THE THOUSAND ISLANDS
REGION AS STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS FORCE AN INCREASED FLOW OF
WATER DOWN THE RIVER.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SW
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HITCHCOCK
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