407
FXUS61 KBUF 172354
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
754 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG WIND GUSTS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A FEW DOWNED TREES AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.
2) A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY, ALONG WITH PLENTY OF RAIN FREE TIME.
3) GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG WIND GUSTS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A FEW DOWNED TREES AND ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES.
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM LOWER MICHIGAN AND
LAKE HURON LATE TONIGHT TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY LATE THURSDAY,
BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 985MB. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
WIND FIELDS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS MORE REMINISCENT OF LATE
FALL OR WINTER THAN JUNE, WITH BOTH THE DEPTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WIND FIELDS ALOFT OUTSIDE OF THE OBSERVED 30 YEAR
CLIMATOLOGY FOR JUNE.
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING A 60-70+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING THIS TIME SHOW POOR LAPSE RATES, WHICH
WILL PREVENT FULL MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A MINIMAL INVERSION, WHICH IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS. THIS WILL LEAVE SOME
OCCASIONAL/SPORADIC PARTIAL MIXING AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM
PASSING SHOWERS AS THE MAIN MECHANISMS TO TRANSPORT STRONGER WINDS
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF WINDS ALOFT, THERE MAY BE A
FEW SPORADIC GUSTS IN THE 40-50MPH/45-55MPH RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN SOUTHERLY WINDS, BUT
EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO BE SHORT DURATION IN MOST AREAS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY,
CROSSING WESTERN NY IN THE MORNING AND REACHING THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION BY MIDDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS LIKELY
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY OVER AND NORTHEAST
OF LAKE ERIE AND NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE WINDS TEND TO
CHANNEL DOWN THE LAKE PLAINS. THE COLD ADVECTION IS WEAK BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, AND LAPSE RATES ONLY MODESTLY STEEPEN. THERE WILL LIKELY
STILL BE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND AS WELL, WHICH
SHOULD PREVENT FULL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT ANOTHER
PERIOD OF 45-55 MPH GUSTS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE ON THURSDAY, AND 35-
45MPH FARTHER INLAND.
THE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS ARE QUITE RARE FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE WHEN
TREES ARE FULLY LEAFED OUT, AND THIS MAY RESULT IN MORE TREE DAMAGE
THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE WITH THESE SAME WIND SPEEDS DURING THE COLD
SEASON. SOME CONSIDERATION WAS MADE TO ISSUE AN IMPACT BASED HIGH
WIND WARNING NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE GIVEN THE CONCERNS ABOVE, BUT
CONFIDENCE ON A LONGER DURATION OF GUSTS OVER 50 MPH IS TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WARNING AT THIS TIME. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA, WITH THE EXPECTATION OF AT LEAST A FEW TREES AND
TREE LIMBS COMING DOWN AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY, ALONG WITH PLENTY OF RAIN
FREE TIME.
SHOWERS AND A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS A WEAKENING MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND ENCOUNTERS MODEST
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. THE RAIN SHOULD PEAK IN COVERAGE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES FARTHER
EAST. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE FARTHER WEST INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER
LAKES ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF ENHANCED
FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE.
TONIGHT, A WING OF WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES,
SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND QUITE
ELEVATED, SO NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THAT SAID, EVAPORATIVE
COOLING FROM ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING GUSTY WINDS TO
THE SURFACE.
THURSDAY, THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION EARLY IN THE MORNING. ANOTHER BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT,
CROSSING WESTERN NY EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN REACHING THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY MIDDAY. THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY BE TOO EARLY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY,
WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH
A MIDDAY ARRIVAL TIME. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS, AND AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS AVAILABLE.
A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES, WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN ACTIVITY
EARLIER IN THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH NOT AS
STRONG AS THURSDAY.
THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SLOWLY FILL. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE, AND THIS WILL SUPPORT GUSTS IN THE 30-
40 MPH RANGE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY, AND 25-35
MPH ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FOR THE 00Z TAFS A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG WINDS.
INITIALLY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AN AREA OF MAINLY PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS
WILL PASS ACROSS THE TAF REGION THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY FALL WITHIN VFR TO MVFR FLIGHT
RANGE. INDUCING LIFT, A STRENGTHENING 70 KNOT LLJ...WITH A BASE OF
45 KNOTS AT 1500 FEET WILL BRING INITIAL LLWS TO THE WESTERN TAF
SITES FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT, BEFORE SURFACE WINDS RESPOND WITH
STRONGER GUSTS. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS JET WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THESE SURFACE GUSTS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE, STRONGEST
NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE SPEEDS OF 45 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
KIAG/KBUF OUT TO KROC. ELSEWHERE, AND INCLUDING KJHW AND KART GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. ONLY THE LATER FEW HOURS OF THIS TAF CYCLE
WILL FEATURE LIGHTER GUSTS.
BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS...AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT A
RIBBON OF DEEPER INSTABILITY WILL FORM, SUCH THAT SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON...MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE TAF REGION THROUGH THE PREDAWN...AND MORNING HOURS. WITHIN
HEAVIER STORMS AND SHOWERS, IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY BE EAST OF THE TAF REGION BY AROUND NOON-TIME,
THROUGH LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER WILL REMAIN THE FINAL 8 HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY NEAR ALL 5 OF OUR TAF SITES...BUT WILL HAVE NOTHING
MORE THAN A PROB30 AT THIS POINT WITH CHANCES LOWER THAN MORNING
ACTIVITY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES WITH LOCAL/BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM LOWER MICHIGAN AND
LAKE HURON LATE TONIGHT TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY LATE THURSDAY, WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
APPROACHES, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES POSSIBLE ON LAKE ERIE AND
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 20-30 KNOT RANGE ON LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KNOTS AT TIMES.
SUSTAINED WINDS AND/OR FREQUENT GUSTS MAY AGAIN APPROACH LOW END
GALES ON LAKE ERIE.
THE SETUP IS MARGINAL, BUT GIVEN THE OUT OF SEASON NATURE OF THE
EVENT, A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE ERIE FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE ONTARIO, THE NIAGARA RIVER, AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON LAKE ONTARIO ALL THE WAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH A LONG PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM LAKE
HURON LATE TONIGHT TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY THURSDAY EVENING, ON A
CLASSIC TRACK TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.
THE COMBINATION OF ABOVE AVERAGE LAKE LEVELS, STRONG WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS, AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION MAY BRING AN
INCREASED RISK OF MINOR LAKESHORE FLOODING AT THE EAST END OF
LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST WINDS
AND WAVES ARE CURRENTLY NEAR THE LOW END OF THE ESTABLISHED
THRESHOLD FOR LAKESHORE FLOODING. A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR OSWEGO AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES. IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.
FLOODING IS MOST PROBABLE IN LOW LYING SHORELINE AREAS FROM
NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY INTO JEFFERSON COUNTY. WATER LEVELS MAY
ALSO RISE ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER IN THE THOUSAND ISLANDS
REGION AS STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS FORCE AN INCREASED FLOW OF
WATER DOWN THE RIVER.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ001>003-
010>014-019>021-085.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR NYZ006-007.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ020.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY
FOR LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR LOZ043>045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EDT THURSDAY
FOR SLZ022-024.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HITCHCOCK
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