179
FXUS61 KBUF 180731
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
331 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND ADVISORY UPGRADED TO HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CWA TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABNORMALLY STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ABNORMALLY STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING AND INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THROUGH THIS MORNING
WHERE IT WILL STALL AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT AND LLJ PUSH INTO THE
REGION. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND THE POTENT LLJ,
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
AREA FROM MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED BEHIND THE PASSING
FRONT, BUT WITH THE LARGER TROUGH OVERHEAD, COMBINED WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AT TIMES ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES, MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN THESE FAVORABLE
AREAS. THIS PASSING TROUGH WILL HELP CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST SOME SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NY STILL EXPECTED IN THE RANGE OF
0.25-0.75" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE STRONG SFC LOW
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EAST
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW, INCLUDING FOR THE TUG HILL AND
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FINGER LAKES. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND THEN THE SOUTHWEST.
WIND GUSTS FOR DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL REACH THE 45 TO 55 MPH RANGE
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST, WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST OF BOTH LAKE ERIE &
ONTARIO. WIND GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR MOST AREAS, WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 55 MPH AT TIMES FOR
AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG SFC LOW
AND A STRONG LLJ OF UP TO 65-75 KTS. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH
LATER THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY AS THE SFC LOW LINGERS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH FRIDAY, SLOWLY WEAKENING IN THE PROCESS.
THIS WILL PROLONG GUSTY WINDS INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY, BUT WINDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY WILL BE TODAY. MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING, WITH A
HANDFUL OF COUNTIES REMAINING WITH THE WIND ADVISORY. WIND RELATED
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH 8PM THIS EVENING. WHILE
WINDS AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE ABNORMALLY STRONG COMPARED TO A WINTER
TYPE SETUP, THE BIGGER CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF LEAVES ON THE TREES
WITH WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH, WITH THE LEAVES INCREASING DRAG
FROM THE WIND VS IN THE COOL SEASON WHEN TREES ARE BARE.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, HOWEVER CLOUD COVER
SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND OVERALL THUNDERSTORMS.
STRONG WIND FIELDS THOUGH TODAY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A HIGH SHEAR
LOW CAPE TYPE SCENARIO, SO ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING GUSTY WINDS IN ADDITION TO WHAT IS ALREADY
EXPECTED. AREAS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ARE IN A LEVEL 1/5
'MARGINAL RISK' AND FAR EASTERN LEWIS COUNTY IS IN A LEVEL 2/5,
'SLIGHT RISK' OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITHIN
THE MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS AS WELL.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (BY MID-JUNE STANDARDS),
WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG NON-CONVECTIVE WINDS TODAY.
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION WITH AREAS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS PRODUCING MVFR VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
CIGS REMAIN VFR TO START THE TAF PERIOD, HOWEVER EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS WESTERN NY, WHILE
MAINLY LOW VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE GENESEE
VALLEY/FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
25-35 KNOT GUSTS BECOMING COMMON BY DAYBREAK.
WARM FRONT EXITS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, BUT WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PLOW ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS SCATTERING OUT
FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD, ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY HANG ON
TOWARD KIAG AND KART. THERE MAY ALSO BE A FEW ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH ANY LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT CIGS WILL
START TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS WESTERN NY TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER MAIN IMPACT TODAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 35-45 KNOTS. THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE NORTHEAST
OF THE LAKES (KBUF/KIAG OVER TO KROC AND TOWARD KART). WINDS WILL
COME DOWN THIS EVENING WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST GUSTS MAINLY IN THE 15-
25 KNOT RANGE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES WITH LOCAL/BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
A STRONG SFC LOW TRACKING NORTH OF THE LAKES TODAY WILL CAUSE WINDS
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. AS
THE SFC LOW TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST, WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
THEN SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE
ERIE WITH HIGHER END SMALL CRAFT WINDS EXPECTED ON LAKE ONTARIO. ALL
MARINE ZONES, INCLUDING THE NIAGARA & ST. LAWRENCE RIVERS HAVE AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT, WITH GALE WARNING FOR LAKE
ERIE. DETAILS AND TIMING CAN BE FOUND BELOW.
WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY WESTERLY BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK ON
THE LAKES WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EITHER IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY
OR LIKELY BEING ADDED AFTER GALE WARNINGS DROP. THIS WILL BE DUE TO
THE SLOW TRACK THE STRONG SFC LOW WILL BE TAKING AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
STRONG OVER THE REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC LOW STILL
NEARBY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH THIS EVENING, ON
A CLASSIC TRACK TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES.
THE COMBINATION OF ABOVE AVERAGE LAKE LEVELS, STRONG WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS, AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION MAY BRING AN
INCREASED RISK OF MINOR LAKESHORE FLOODING AT THE EAST END OF
LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST WINDS AND
WAVES ARE CURRENTLY NEAR THE LOW END OF THE ESTABLISHED
THRESHOLD FOR LAKESHORE FLOODING. A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR OSWEGO AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES. IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.
FLOODING IS MOST PROBABLE IN LOW LYING SHORELINE AREAS FROM
NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY INTO JEFFERSON COUNTY. WATER LEVELS MAY
ALSO RISE ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER IN THE THOUSAND ISLANDS
REGION AS STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS FORCE AN INCREASED FLOW OF
WATER DOWN THE RIVER.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ001>003-
007-008-010>014-019-085.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ004>006.
LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR NYZ006-007.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ020-021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
EDT THIS EVENING FOR SLZ022-024.
DISCUSSION...SW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HITCHCOCK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page