124
FXUS61 KBUF 181738
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
138 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, RESULTING
IN SOME WIND DAMAGE AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.
2) A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH PLENTY OF RAIN FREE TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING, RESULTING IN SOME WIND DAMAGE AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC THROUGH THIS EVENING, BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 987MB. BOTH THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE NEAR THE
HIGH END OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ALOFT, WITH 45-55 KNOTS IN THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER, WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY THIS EVENING.
WHILE COLD ADVECTION IS WEAK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A DRY SLOT AND
SUNSHINE IS AIDING IN MIXING AND STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, SUPPORTING DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF STRONGER GUSTS TO THE
SURFACE.
THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE
FROM THE BUFFALO METRO AREA TO ROCHESTER, AND ALSO NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE IN GENESEE COUNTY DUE TO CHANNELING AND ENHANCEMENT DOWNWIND OF
THE LAKES. GUSTS IN THESE AREAS WILL PEAK NEAR 55 MPH ON AVERAGE,
WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH ELSEWHERE. WHILE THESE WIND GUSTS ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE BY LATE FALL OR WINTER STANDARDS, FULLY LEAFED OUT
TREES AND NEW SEASONAL GROWTH ON TREES MAKES THEM MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
WIND AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHICH WILL RESULT IN TREE DAMAGE AND
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT
MOVE OFF, AND DIURNAL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUBSIDES.
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE BREEZY AS THE STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES SLOWLY
EAST TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW
25-35 KNOTS NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER, SUPPORTING SURFACE
GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE IN MOST AREAS AND 30-35 MPH SOUTHEAST
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
RAIN FREE TIME.
THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION AND THE SEVERE RISK IS ALREADY EAST OF
THE AREA. A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, FORMING MAINLY ON
CONVERGENCE ZONES ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF ENHANCED
FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE.
MOST AREAS WILL BECOME DRY EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER OVERNIGHT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER QUEBEC. THE BEST
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TUG HILL PLATEAU AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH AN ADDED BOOST OF
UPSLOPE FLOW.
A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD FRIDAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES.
THE MOST PROMINENT CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM NEAR
THE BUFFALO METRO AREA EXTENDING EAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN FINGER
LAKES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FLOW IS WESTERLY ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL
PLACE THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE TYPICAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW SETUP.
A FEW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NY WHERE MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS. FARTHER WEST, WHILE THERE MAY BE A PASSING
SHOWER OR TWO AT TIMES, THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN
FREE.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ALONG A LAKE BREEZE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CONVECTION INLAND ACROSS WESTERN NY WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR AND SHOWERS. A FEW STRONGER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN KROC AND KART. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THIS EVENING AND MAY
BRIEFING IMPACT KIAG AND KROC.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE MVFR CEILINGS
BUILD INTO THE REGION. CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT, WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF
THE REGION AND MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE TUG HILL INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. FRIDAY, A CONVERGENCE ZONE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND MVFR AND SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE.
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-
CENTRAL NY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST AND
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND TAPER OFF TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30
KNOTS. THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES WITH LOCAL/BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC BY THIS EVENING, THEN TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, PRODUCING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS ON
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
ON LAKE ERIE, SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KNOTS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS TO
35 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY CHOPPY ON FRIDAY,
WITH WINDS AND WAVES POSSIBLY REACHING LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
ON LAKE ONTARIO, HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
WITH WINDS IN THE 20-30 KNOT RANGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
FINALLY DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH THIS EVENING, ON A CLASSIC TRACK TO
PRODUCE STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE COMBINATION OF ABOVE AVERAGE LAKE LEVELS, STRONG WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS, AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION MAY BRING AN
INCREASED RISK OF MINOR LAKESHORE FLOODING AT THE EAST END OF
LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST WINDS AND
WAVES ARE CURRENTLY NEAR THE LOW END OF THE ESTABLISHED
THRESHOLD FOR LAKESHORE FLOODING. A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OSWEGO AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES. IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.
FLOODING IS MOST PROBABLE IN LOW LYING SHORELINE AREAS FROM
NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY INTO JEFFERSON COUNTY. WATER LEVELS MAY
ALSO RISE ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER IN THE THOUSAND ISLANDS
REGION AS STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS FORCE AN INCREASED FLOW OF
WATER DOWN THE RIVER.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ001>003-
007-008-010>014-019-085.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NYZ001-
002.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
NYZ003>005.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ004>006-020-
021.
LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006-007.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-
085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SLZ022-024.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HITCHCOCK
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