814
FXUS61 KBUF 190052
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
852 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL HIGH WIND WARNINGS, WIND ADVISORIES, AND GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONGEST WINDS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
2) A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH PLENTY OF RAIN FREE TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONGEST WINDS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT, THEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS
THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT MOVE OFF TO THE EAST, AND DIURNAL MIXING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUBSIDES.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL STILL BE BREEZY HOWEVER AS THE STRONG
SURFACE LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW 25-40 KNOTS NEAR THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER, SUPPORTING SURFACE GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE IN
MOST AREAS AND 30-40 MPH SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
RAIN FREE TIME.
MOST AREAS WILL BECOME DRY EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER OVERNIGHT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER QUEBEC. THE BEST
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TUG HILL PLATEAU AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH AN ADDED BOOST OF
UPSLOPE FLOW.
A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD FRIDAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES.
THE MOST PROMINENT CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM NEAR
THE BUFFALO METRO AREA EXTENDING EAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN FINGER
LAKES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FLOW IS WESTERLY ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL
PLACE THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE TYPICAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW SETUP.
A FEW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NY WHERE MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS. FARTHER WEST, WHILE THERE MAY BE A PASSING
SHOWER OR TWO AT TIMES, THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN
FREE.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MUCH OF THE AREA IS RAIN-FREE THIS EVENING, WITH JUST A COUPLE OF
VERY LOCALIZED BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS LOCATED ALONG WEAKENING LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. BULK OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO, BEFORE BECOMING MAINLY DRY THERE AS WELL. FRIDAY, A
CONVERGENCE ZONE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO
THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND LOCALIZED MVFR AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
JUST A FEW SPOTTY AREAS OF MVFR CIGS PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHCENTRAL NY EARLY THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SHOWER ACTIVITY, AS WELL ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
ASIDE FROM SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN
TIER, MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION (INCLUDING KART), WHERE MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT INTO A PORTION OF FRIDAY MORNING, BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR BY
LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE EXITED THE AREA, WESTERLY GUSTS OF
15-25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS, AND POSSIBLY UP TO 35
KNOTS ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
SHORELINE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES WITH LOCAL/BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT, THEN TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, PRODUCING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS ON
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
ON LAKE ERIE, SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO 15-25 KNOTS EARLY THIS
EVENING, THUS THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AND HAS
BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY VALID THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY CHOPPY ON FRIDAY, WITH
WINDS AND WAVES POSSIBLY REACHING MARGINAL SCA CRITERIA AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
ON LAKE ONTARIO, HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
WITH WINDS IN THE 20-30 KNOT RANGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
FINALLY DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT, ON A CLASSIC TRACK TO PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE COMBINATION OF ABOVE AVERAGE LAKE LEVELS, STRONG WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS, AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION MAY BRING AN
INCREASED RISK OF MINOR LAKESHORE FLOODING AT THE EAST END OF
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST WINDS AND WAVES ARE
CURRENTLY NEAR THE LOW END OF THE ESTABLISHED THRESHOLD FOR
LAKESHORE FLOODING. A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR OSWEGO AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES. IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINOR.
FLOODING IS MOST PROBABLE IN LOW LYING SHORELINE AREAS FROM
NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY INTO JEFFERSON COUNTY. WATER LEVELS MAY
ALSO RISE ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER IN THE THOUSAND ISLANDS
REGION AS STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS FORCE AN INCREASED FLOW OF
WATER DOWN THE RIVER.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NYZ001-
002.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
NYZ003>005.
LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006-007.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ010-019-
085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SLZ022-024.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK/JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HITCHCOCK
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