345
FXUS61 KBUF 190756
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
356 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
2) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
FOLLOWED BY INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
WHILE THE STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THURSDAY CONTINUES TO
TRACK FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. COMBINED WITH A
CONVERGENT FLOW OFF THE LAKES, THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR EAST OF BUFFALO. SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO EXPECTED NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, WHERE
BETTER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING FROM THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE WILL DEVELOP AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
CROSS THE AREA AND DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO INCREASE INSTABILITY
ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP. EXPECTED TIMING FOR AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL
ALSO HELP INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AS WELL EACH
AFTERNOON.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND EITHER
OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE BUF FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE AREA RAIN WILL
PUSH INTO WNY AND EXPAND NORTHEAST. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AMONG
GUIDANCE FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW, WHICH WILL DETERMINE THE AMOUNT
OF RAIN THAT CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENT.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
BULK OF THE AREA WILL BE REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO, BEFORE BECOMING MAINLY DRY THERE AS WELL LATE
TONIGHT. FRIDAY, A CONVERGENCE ZONE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION FROM AROUND MIDDAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
MVFR AND SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FRIDAY EVENING,
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.
JUST SOME PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR CIGS PRESENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SOUTHERN TIER TO START OFF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD, WHILE MVFR CIGS HAVE
DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO (KART) AND WILL PERSIST
INTO AT LEAST A PORTION OF FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS AREAS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. CIGS WILL RETURN TO VFR BY LATER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS WELL, BEFORE MVFR
CIGS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE EXITED THE AREA, WESTERLY GUSTS OF
15-25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS, AND POSSIBLY UP TO 35 KNOTS
ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
SHORELINE. WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING INTO THE 10-20
KNOT RANGE FRIDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES WITH LOCAL/BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
WHILE THE STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THURSDAY CONTINUES TO
TRACK FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL
REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KNOTS AT
TIMES. SCA'S REMAIN ON ALL LAKE ONTARIO ZONES AND LAKESHORE FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAIN FOR THE SHORELINE OF JEFFERSON AND OSWEGO COUNTIES.
FOR LAKE ERIE, WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME THIS MORNING, BEFORE
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN LATER IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO THE
15-20 KNOT RANGE, JUST INTO THE LOWER END OF SCA LEVELS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES WILL ALSO INCREASE TO LOWER END SCA LEVELS
AS WELL. AS A RESULT, A NEW ROUND OF SCA'S HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
TODAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY, ON A CLASSIC TRACK TO PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE COMBINATION OF ABOVE AVERAGE LAKE LEVELS, STRONG WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS, AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION MAY BRING AN
INCREASED RISK OF MINOR LAKESHORE FLOODING AT THE EAST END OF
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. FORECAST WINDS AND WAVES
ARE CURRENTLY NEAR THE LOW END OF THE ESTABLISHED THRESHOLD FOR
LAKESHORE FLOODING. A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR OSWEGO AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES. IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINOR.
FLOODING IS MOST PROBABLE IN LOW LYING SHORELINE AREAS FROM
NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY INTO JEFFERSON COUNTY. WATER LEVELS MAY
ALSO RISE ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER IN THE THOUSAND ISLANDS
REGION AS STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS FORCE AN INCREASED FLOW OF
WATER DOWN THE RIVER.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NYZ001-
002.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
NYZ003>005.
LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ006-
007.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NYZ010-019-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
DISCUSSION...SW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HITCHCOCK
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