884
FXUS61 KBUF 192328
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
728 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY
FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
2) A DEEPENING TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.
3) COOL WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
LOW TO MID 50S IN MOST AREAS, WITH MID 40S IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEYS AND LEWIS COUNTY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER, FINGER LAKES, AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
FOG WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE NOCTURNAL COLD AIR DRAINAGE FLOW ENCOUNTERS WARM RIVER WATER.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST. PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING MONDAY, LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES TO
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF JULY NORMALS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A DEEPENING TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS A SEASONABLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY, BUT STRENGTHENING DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL TRANSPORT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR MODERATE
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. MOST OF THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT
NOT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL LATER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW
MORE SHOWERS.
THE SEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A STRONG WIND FIELD
TUESDAY BY JULY STANDARDS, WITH ASSOCIATED SHEAR PROFILES
POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING MULTIPLE STORM MODES INCLUDING A FEW
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND BOWING SEGMENTS. ONE POTENTIAL POINT OF
UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD DEBRIS AND SHOWERS ARRIVING
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY FROM WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION. THESE
FORECAST DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT
EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER ACTIVE SEVERE
WEATHER DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...COOL WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY, WITH ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND COOL AIR ALOFT
POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. OVERALL, COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LOWER WEDNESDAY
COMPARED TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHER
TERRAIN. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR JULY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT, TO JUST OFF THE JERSEY SHORE
BY LATE MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO THE BULK
OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NY THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING OVERTOP THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
SETUP WILL AID IN THE FORMATION OF VALLEY FOG THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF TONIGHT THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS, WITH LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE (KJHW).
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
THEN DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY, WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS
AND FLAT WAVE ACTION TO START THE WEEK.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY, WITH
THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
TUESDAY, AND THIS MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME WNW BY
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND INCREASE FURTHER,
ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ONTARIO, WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ001-002-
010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JM/TMA
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
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