889
FXUS61 KBUF 200646
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
246 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE.
2) COOL WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW IN NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL PIVOT
AROUND THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF JAMES BAY WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
TUESDAY MORNING. ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DECAYING AS IT
MOVES INTO WESTERN NY. DEEPENING WIND FIELDS AND A MOISTURE PLUME
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 1000-
2000 J/KG WILL PROVIDE AMPLE INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. THE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT. CURVING HODOGRAPHS IN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT FAVOR SOME SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE,
WITH A SIGNAL THAT TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
THE WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING AND
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COOL WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
A CLOSED LOW WILL SET-UP OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. A MUCH
COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITHIN A WESTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER,
WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGION, AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KJHW, WITH A LOWER RISK AT THE
OTHER TERMINALS.
AFTER FOG ERODES THIS MORNING, WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS AND MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
LIGHT WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS TODAY.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THE LAKES TONIGHT.
WAVES WILL BUILD OFFSHORE WITH HIGHER WAVES MOVING ON THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BOTH
LAKES TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK
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