082
FXUS61 KBUF 231034
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
634 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FAIR WEATHER WITH DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...FAIR WEATHER WITH DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND THROUGH
SATURDAY.
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE CORN
BELT STATES THIS MORNING, AND THIS FEATURE WILL CREST ACROSS OUR
REGION TONIGHT.
THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY SATURDAY AS A LITTLE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE SNEAKS NORTHWARD FROM OH/PA.
DAY TO DAY WARMING WILL ENSUE AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY BEHIND THIS
SURFACE HIGH. HIGHS IN THE 70S TODAY WILL BECOME HIGHS IN THE 80S
FOR SATURDAY. DEWPOINTS, HOWEVER, WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH VALUES ONLY NEARING 60F, RESULTING IN A NOT
SO HUMID AIRMASS.
THE LIGHT WIND FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL
VALLEY FOG, LIKELY MORE EXTENSIVE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH A
WEAKER WIND FLOW AT 1K FEET.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY AND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
SEVERAL CONVECTIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CRESTING A ROCKIES/PLAINS RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR
HUDSON BAY WILL RETURN UNSETTLED WEATHER TO OUR REGION BY SUNDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE RECENTLY DEPARTED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE (INCREASING HUMIDITY) ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH PWAT VALUES REACHING 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER.
MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS WNY WILL ENCOURAGE CONVECTION THROUGH THE
DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY
ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FOR THE 12Z TAFS VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH A
LIGHT WIND COURTESY OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.
THURSDAY NIGHT A SIMILAR SITUATION WILL UNFOLD WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
CRESTING OVER THE TAF CYCLE. LACKING A DECENT FLOW AT 1K FEET, THIS
TIME VALLEY FOG MAY EXPAND OVER THE KJHW TERMINAL BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG AND LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
BRISK WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE LAKES,
BUT WITH SPEEDS AROUND OR LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND WAVES UNDER FOUR
FEET. THIS WILL ALLOW ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO END/ BE
CANCELLED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY, AND
CREST ACROSS THE LAKES TONIGHT. THE LIGHTER WIND REGIME AND MINIMAL
WAVES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THOMAS
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
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