951
FXUS61 KBUF 231703
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
103 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER WITH A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND THROUGH
SATURDAY.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY WEATHER WITH A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND THROUGH
SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT, WITH ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S AGAIN IN MOST AREAS, WITH MID 40S FOR
THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION. EXPECT RIVER
VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY
WEATHER. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES, BUT THIS WOULD REMAIN VERY
ISOLATED IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS.
ONGOING WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DAY TO DAY WARMING
TREND, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S FRIDAY AND MID 80S SATURDAY FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER AND JUST
EAST OF THE 4-CORNERS SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
STEADY PARADE OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE POSITION, ALLOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO GRADUALLY DIG AND
EXPAND ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND.
EACH PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, STARTING SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A CHANCE OF
RAIN EACH DAY, MUCH OF THE TIME WILL STILL BE RAIN FREE WITH VERY
UNEVEN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND
AN UPSTREAM RIDGE CAN OFTEN BE AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR LOCALIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND, SO THIS
POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THIS PERIOD DRAWS CLOSER.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST.
LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN AMPLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT (08Z TO 12Z), WHERE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
WITHIN FOG, EXPECT LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAR
THE FOG WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE VALLEYS, AND THEREFORE KJHW MAY BE
IMPACTED.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT,
THEN LINGER FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS AND WAVES 2 FEET
OR LESS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
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